Forecasting with Judgment

ISBN-13: 9780471970149 / Angielski / Twarda / 1998 / 350 str.

George Wright; Paul Goodwin;Wright

Opis

This book provides research on the human element in forecasting. It focuses on how we can improve our ability to accurately forecast.

Spis treści

Judgment: Its Role and Value for Strategy (S. Makridakis & A. Gaba).

Scenario Planning: Scaffolding Disorganized Ideas about the Future (K. van der Heijden).

Judgmental Forecasting and the Use of Available Information (M. O′Connor & M. Lawrence).

Enhancing Judgmental Sales Forecasting: The Role of Laboratory Research (P. Goodwin).

Heuristics and Biases in Judgmental Forecasting (F. Bolger & N. Harvey).

Financial Forecasting with Judgment (D. Önkal–Atay).

Reasoning with Category Knowledge in Probability Forecasting: Typicality and Perceived Variability Effects (G. Browne & S. Curley).

The Use of Structured Groups to Improve Judgmental Forecasting (G. Rowe).

How Bad Is Human Judgment?

(P. Ayton).

Integration of Statistical Methods and Judgment for Time Series Forecasting: Principles from Empirical Research (J. Armstrong & F. Collopy).

Index.

O autorze

George Wright is a psychologist with an interest in the role and validity of judgment in decision making and forecasting. He is especially interested in the use of management science- and behaviorally-based methods to improve decision-making. He has published in key journals, and is the Editor of the Journal of Behavioral Decision Making. He has consulted with firms such as IBM, ICL, NEC, Petronas, Jordan Ministry of Planning, and the Scottish Football Association. Paul Goodwin is Senior Lecturer in Management Science in the Management School at the University of Bath. His research interests focus on the role of management judgment in forecasting and decision-making, and he has published in key journals in the field. He is an Associate Editor of the International Journal of Forecasting and a member of the editorial board of the Journal of Behavioral Decision Making. He has consulted with firms such as British Telecom and South Western Electricity