Forecasting Transportation Impacts Upon Land Use

ISBN-13: 9789020706277 / Angielski / Miękka / 1976 / 158 str.

P. F. Wendt;University Of Georgia

Opis

The idea for this book had its origins in a series of working papers prepared for the Georgia Transportation Planning Land Use Model project. The book is not an official report on that project and does not necessarily reflect the views of the Georgia Department of Transportation. Mrs. Catherine Bennett, Systems Designer, assisted in the special run of the Georgia State Econometric Model in Chapter 2. Mr. Richard Burns and Miss Louise Shedd, research assistant!i, aided in data assembly and analysis for Chapters 3 and 5. The authors wish to express their particular thanks to Mrs. Dallas Gonzales, who provided editorial assistance, and to Mrs. Deborah Conklin, who typed the final manuscript. Table of contents PREFACE v LIST OF TABLES x LIST OF FIGURES xii 1. INTRODUCTION AND OVERVIEW PAUL F. WENDT Urban growth theories 1 Land use models 4 The Georgia transportation planning land use model 6 Employment and population submodel 7 Description of the Delphi technique 8 Housing and population submodel 9 Relationships between land use forecasting 10 Summary 12 2. NATIONAL AND REGIONAL ECONOMETRIC MODELS 16 JOHN B. LEGLER AND TERRY D. ROBERTSON Macro-econometric models 16 Problems in constructing regional econometric models 19 The Georgia model 20 Testing the Georgia model 22 Forecasts and applications of the Georgia model 25 An example of impact analysis using the Georgia state model 28 Summary 30 3. GROWTH AND CHANGE IN THE GEORGIA REGIONAL ECONOMIES 32 CHARLES F.

Spis treści

1. Introduction and Overview.- Urban growth theories.- Land use models.- The Georgia transportation planning land use model.- Employment and population submodel.- Description of the Delphi technique.- Housing and population submodel.- Relationships between land use forecasting.- Summary.- 2. National and Regional Econometric Models.- Macro-econometric models.- Problems in constructing regional econometric models.- The Georgia model.- Testing the Georgia model.- Forecasts and applications of the Georgia model.- An example of impact analysis using the Georgia state model.- Summary.- 3. Growth and Change in the Georgia Regional Economies.- Growth and change in the Georgia economy: restrospect.- Georgia economic growth: 1950–1959.- Georgia economic growth: 1959–1970.- The per capita income gap.- The Georgia regional economies: retrospect.- Geographic areas of analysis.- The Atlanta metropolitan region compared to the remainder of Georgia.- Growth and change in the area planning and development commission areas.- Growth and change in the Georgia economy: prospect.- projected employment growth: 1980.- Some key industry sectors.- Transportation facilities.- Transfer payment income.- Labor supply.- Summary.- 4. A Delphi Approach to Land Use Forecasting.- Forecasting land use.- The Delphi technique.- Designing the Delphi land use study.- Selection of panel areas.- Constructing the questionnaire.- Designing a spatial forecast.- Selection of panelists.- Conducting the study.- The Delphi forecast.- Panel B — hart county.- Attractiveness factors.- Summary and conclusions.- Properties of the Delphi land use methodology.- Prospects for future use.- 5. Land Suitability and Land Use Analysis.- Data.- Data needs.- Data availability.- Future data sources.- Data collection.- The model.- Operation of the model.- Future modifications.- 6. The Interaction of Transportation and Land Use.- Problems.- Theoretical models.- Applied models.- The theoretical model.- Transportation and land use planning.- The data.- The predictive model.- Empirical results.- Conclusions.- 7. Summary and Conclusions.- Estimating population and employment.- Policy-determined constraints and land use allocations.- Introducing alternative transportation plans.- The transportation planning decision process.- Using the transportation decision model.