Finance and the Behavioral Prospect: Risk, Exuberance, and Abnormal Markets

ISBN-13: 9783319813516 / Angielski / Miękka / 2018 / 343 str.

James Ming Chen

Spis treści

Chapter 1 — The Structure of a Behavioral Revolution

§ 1.1 — Abnormal markets, irrational investors

§ 1.2 — Anomalies, fast and slow

§ 1.3 — Sell in May and go away?

§ 1.4 — Law on the market

§ 1.5 — Raw emotion

§ 1.6 — Trade like a girl

Chapter 2 — Mental Accounting, Emotional Hierarchies, and Behavioral Heuristics

§ 2.1 — Keeping emotional score

§ 2.2 — Maslowian portfolio theory

§ 2.3 — “Shots at greatness”: Rehabilitating self-actualization in neo-Maslowian thought as a trading strategy

§ 2.4 — Behavioral environmental economics

§ 2.5 — Fables of the reconstruction

 

Chapter 3 — Higher-Moment Capital Asset Pricing and Its Behavioral Implications

§ 3.1 — The conventional capital asset pricing model

§ 3.2 — Four-moment CAPM as a Taylor series expansion

§ 3.3 — A bridge between econometric and behavioral views of low volatility

 

Chapter 4 — Tracking the Low-Volatility Anomaly Across Behavioral Space

§ 4.1 — The low-volatility anomaly and Bowman’s paradox

§ 4.2 — Beta as a composite measure of volatility and correlation

§ 4.3 — Downside volatility and correlation tightening in emerging markets

§ 4.4 — Pricing and predicting correlation risk

§ 4.5 — Evidence against a correlation risk premium

 

Chapter 5 — The Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model: Hedging Investment Risk Across Time

§ 5.1 — The intertemporal capital asset pricing model

§ 5.2 — Bad beta, good beta

§ 5.3 — Addressing the low-volatility anomaly through spatial and temporal bifurcations of beta

 

Chapter 6 — Risk Aversion

§ 6.1 — The Arrow-Pratt measures of risk aversion; the coefficient of absolute risk aversion

§ 6.2 — The coefficient of relative risk aversion

§ 6.3 — Pratt’s risk-averse insurance premium

§ 6.4 — Hyperbolic absolute risk aversion

§ 6.5 — A comparison with scale-invariant models of financial returns

§ 6.6 — Risk aversion, risk tolerance, and their relationship to the Sharpe and kappa ratios

§ 6.7 — The Allais paradox

§ 6.8 — The St. Petersburg paradox

 

Chapter 7 — The Equity Risk Premium and the Equity Premium Puzzle

§7.1 — The equity risk premium

§ 7.2 — A cautious stroll off Wall Street

§ 7.3 — The equity premium puzzle

§ 7.4 — Another puzzle, and a challenge

§ 7.5 — Habit formation and the life-cycle hypothesis

§ 7.6 — Catching up with the Joneses

§ 7.7 — Macroeconomic disaster and personal peril

§ 7.8 — Familiarity breeds irrationality

§ 7.9 — Gaudeamus igitur: The familiar but curious economics of university endowments

 

Chapter 8 — Prospect Theory

§ 8.1 — Comprehensive accounts of behavioral finance

§ 8.2 — Responding to anomalies in expected utility theory

§ 8.3 — The value function

§ 8.4 — Flagging prospect theory: Log-logistic distribution

§ 8.5 — Flagging prospect theory: Two-parameter lognormal distribution

§ 8.6 — Cumulative prospect theory

§ 8.7 — The weighting function

§ 8.8 — The fourfold pattern

 

Chapter 9 — Specific Applications of Prospect Theory to Behavioral Finance

§ 9.1 — The longing for lotteries

§ 9.2 — Initial public offerings

§ 9.3 — Prospect theory and Bowman’s paradox

§ 9.4 — Prospect theory and the equity premium puzzle: Myopic loss aversion

§ 9.5 — Another equity premium solution: Prospect theory and asset pricing

 

Chapter 10 — Beyond Hope and Fear: Behavioral Portfolio Theory

§ 10.1 — Prospect’s progress: Beyond theories of Everyman

§ 10.2 — SP/A theory

§ 10.3 — The human heart in conflict with itself

§ 10.4 — Roy’s safety-first criterion

§ 10.5 — Behavioral portfolio theory

§ 10.6 — The practical consequences of behaviorally sensitive portfolio optimization

§ 10.7 — Behavioral portfolio theory as a form of value-at-risk (VaR) analysis

 

Chapter 11 — Behavioral Gaps Between Hypothetical Investment Returns and Actual Investor Returns

§ 11.1 — Hypothetical investment returns versus actual investor returns

§ 11.2 — The disposition effect

§ 11.3 — The behavioral origins of the investment gap

§ 11.4 — ψ: Measuring behavioral gaps in investment performance

§ 11.5 — The effect of capital gains taxation

 

Chapter 12 — Irrational Exuberance: Momentum Crashes and Speculative Bubbles

§ 12.1 — Some speculation about speculative bubbles

§ 12.2 — The behavioral origins of stock market momentum

§ 12.3 — Momentum crashes

§ 12.4 — Liquidity risk

§ 12.5 — A simple model of informed and naïve trading

 

Conclusion: The Monster and the Sleeping Queen

O autorze

James Ming Chen holds the Justin Smith Morrill Chair in Law at Michigan State University, USA. He teaches, lectures, and writes widely on law, economics, and regulation. His books, Disaster Law and Policy and Postmodern Portfolio Theory, cover a broad range of issues concerning extreme events and risk management, from natural to financial disasters. He is of counsel to the Technology Law Group of Washington, D.C.; a public member of the Administrative Conference of the United States; and an elected member of the American Law Institute. A magna cum laude graduate of Harvard Law School and a former editor of the Harvard Law Review, Chen also served as a clerk to Justice Clarence Thomas of the Supreme Court of the United States.

Blurb

This book explains how investor behavior, from mental accounting to the combustible interplay of hope and fear, affects financial economics. The transformation of portfolio theory begins with the identification of anomalies. Gaps in perception and behavioral departures from rationality spur momentum, irrational exuberance, and speculative bubbles. Behavioral accounting undermines the rational premises of mathematical finance. Assets and portfolios are imbued with “affect.” Positive and negative emotions warp investment decisions. Whether hedging against intertemporal changes in their ability to bear risk or climbing a psychological hierarchy of needs, investors arrange their portfolios and financial affairs according to emotions and perceptions. Risk aversion and life-cycle theories of consumption provide possible solutions to the equity premium puzzle, an iconic financial mystery. Prospect theory has questioned the cogency of the efficient capital markets hypothesis. Behavioral portfolio theory arises from a psychological account of security, potential, and aspiration.