Extreme Hydrological Events: New Concepts for Security

ISBN-13: 9781402057403 / Angielski / Miękka / 2007 / 499 str.

O. F. Vasiliev; P. H. a. J. M. Van Gelder; E. J. Plate

Opis

This proceedings contains the papers which were presented at the NATO Advanced Research Workshop (ARW) on Extreme Hydrological Events: New Concepts for Security, which was held in Novosibirsk, Russia, from July 11-15, 2005. The workshop fell within the NATO priority research topic on Environmental Security, Disaster Forecast and Prevention. At the present time, the necessity of considerable deepening of our understanding about the nature of extreme and catastrophic natural and man-induced events, in particular hydrologic ones, becomes very topical, as well as the development of advanced methods for their prediction, including estimating probability of their occurrence and a risk related to them. Another aspect of this hydrological problem is reducing of vulnerability of social, economic, and engineering systems to the extreme hydrologic events (EHE) and decreasing of a degree of their effect on such systems. Dealing with these problems needs further refining existing tools for prediction and forecasting of EHE. It can be done essentially through revealing mechanisms of their generation and with use of new approaches and methodologies in related branches of hydrology. This ARW is targeted to contribute to the critical analysis and assessment of current knowledge on a number of the key issues of hydrology, such as: extreme hydrological phenomena, problems of floods, low flows and droughts. In view of significant economic losses and actually wide geographical occurrence, investigation of these hydrological phenomena is of great scientific and practical importance.

Spis treści

Introduction. Preface of Extreme Hydrological Events: New Concepts for Security; O.F. Vasiliev, P.H.A.J.M. van Gelder, E.J. Plate, M.V.Bolgov.- Thoughts on the Economics of Floodplain Development in the U.S.; D. P. Loucks and J.R. Stedinger.- Flood Risk Management for Setting Priorities in Decision- Making; E. J. Plate.- Basin Case Studies on Extreme Hydrological Events. Rhine Floods and Low Flows; H.E.Berger and W van de Langemheen.- August 2002 Catastrophic Flood in the Czech Republic J. Boucek.- Lessons Learned from the Elbe River Floods in August 2002; H. Kreibich et al.-Floods in Austria; G. Blöschl et al.- The conditions of the formation and development of extreme floods in Zakarpatye (the basin of Tisa river) A. I. Shershevsky.- Floods in Poland in Summer 1997: Odra and Vistula; Z.W. Kundzewicz.-Floods in Siberian river basins; D. A. Burakov et al.-Rain floods of the far east and east Siberia; L.M. Kortytny et al.- Probabilistic Estimation in Flood Studies.Theory of extreme events and probability distributions of flooding characteristics; M . V. Bolgov, N. V. Osipiva.- Regional Flood Frequency Analysis; D. Rosbjerg.- Probabilistic Forecasts Using Bayesian Networks Calibrated with Deterministic Rainfall-Runoff Models; L. Garote et al.- Predetermination of Floods; P. Hubert et al.- Statistical Estimation Methods for Extreme Hydrological Events; P.H.A.J.M. van Gelder et al.- Ice-Induced Floods. Studies of Ice Jam Flooding in the United States; K.White.- Laboratory medelling of ice jam floods on the Lena river; V.A. Buzin et al.- Hydrological conditions for actions on prevention of ice flooding on the Lena river; V. V. Kilmjaninov.-Information Needs and Uncertainties in Forecasting and Mitigating Ice-Jam Floods; R. Ettema.- River Low Flows and Climatic Conditions and Environmental Issues. Drought-Induced Water Scarcity in Water Resources Systems; F.J. Martin-Carrasco and L. Garrote.- River Low Flows in Austria; G. Blöschl and G. Laaha.- Assessment of theeffect of autumn-winter river low flow on the operation of reservoir with seasonal regulation; O.F. Vasiliev et al.- Risk Assessment and Management for Floods, low Water Events, Damages Vulnerability Issues. The Dutch strategy for safety and river flood prevention; B. Fokkens and U. Menke.- Flood control system in Russia; A. Asarin.- Evacuation and Life Loss Estimation Model for Natural and Dam Break Floods;D. S. Bowles and M. Aboelata.- Flood Protection and Management in the Netherlands; K. Pilarczyk.- Uncertain Developments Influencing the Design Height of River Dikes; H.E.J. Berger.- Revised Strategies for Flood Risk Management: Lessons from the Catastrophic Flood in 2002 in Europe; H. P. Nachtnebel.- The European Real-Time Flood Forecasting System (EFFS); P. Reggiani et al.- Conclusions and Recommendations. WG Conclusions and Recommendations; O.F. Vasiliev, P.H.A.J.M. van Gelder, E.J. Plate, M.V.Bolgov.- Authors index. List of Participants. Authors Index.List of Participants.