Export Volatility and Economic Growth: The Case of Ethiopia

ISBN-13: 9783659753428 / Angielski / Miękka / 2018 / 80 str.

Nurhussen Hussien

Opis

Export volatility is a serious problem in the economic growth of any developing country. This study uses quarterly data on Export price, Export Volume, Labor, Capital, Imported capital good and Real Gross Domestic Product (RGDP) over the period 1991-2014. To model Export price and Export volume volatility as time varying process, an extended form of GARCH (Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heterosedasticity) model i.e. GARCH (1,1) is used and Extended Cobb-Douglas production growth model is also used to see the long-run relationship between export volatility and economic growth in Ethiopia. According to the estimation result of GARCH (1, 1) model, previous day's volatility of export price and volume can influence the current day's volatility of both export price and volume. And from the extended Cobb-Douglas production model result, both export price and export volume volatility indexes negatively affect long run economic growth. As remedial measure the study suggested that the country should transform and shift towards production of high quality goods from low quality goods along with diversifying its export products where it has comparative advantage.

O autorze

Hussien, Nurhussen
Nurhussen A. Hussien, MSc: Studied Development Economics at Debre Markos University. PhD candidate at Sakarya University, Turkey.He served CBE as Senior Branch Controller and he has been serving YOM Institute of Economic Development as Co- Advisor since July 2016. Now he is doing his PhD in Economics at Sakarya University, Turkey.