Energy Demand: Facts and Trends: A Comparative Analysis of Industrialized Countries

ISBN-13: 9783709186411 / Angielski / Miękka / 2011 / 280 str.

B. Chateau; B. Lapillonne

Opis

The fIrst oil crisis of 1973-74 and the questions it raised in the economic and social fIelds drew attention to energy issues. Industrial societies, accustomed for two decades or more to energy sufficiently easy to produce and cheap to consume that it was thought to be inexhaustible, began to question their energy future. The studies undertaken at that time, and since, on a national, regional, or world level were over-optimistic. The problem seemed simple enough to solve. On the one hand, a certain number of resources: coal, the abundance of which was discovered, or rather rediscovered oil, source of all the problems ... In fact, the problems seemed to come, if not from oil itself (an easy explanation), then from those who produced it without really owning it, and from those who owned it without really control ling it natural gas, second only to oil and less compromised uranium, all of whose promises had not been kept, but whose resources were not in question solar energy, multiform and really inexhaustible thermonuclear fusion, and geothermal energy, etc. On the other hand, energy consumption, though excessive perhaps, was symbolic of progress, development, and increased well being. The originality of the energy policies set up since 1974 lies in the fact they no longer aimed to produce (or import) more, but to consume less. They sought, and still seek, what might be emphatically called the control of energy consump tion, or rather the control of energy demand."

Spis treści

I. The Analysis of Energy Demand: An Overview.- 1. Concepts and Methods.- 1.1. Usual Concepts.- 1.2. New Concepts.- 1.3. Methods of Analysis.- 2. The Role of Prices.- 2.1. Micro-Economic Aspects.- Final Consumers and Energy Prices.- Intermediate Consumers and Energy Prices.- 2.2. Macro-Economic Aspects.- II. Energy Demand in the Residential and Tertkiy Sector.- 1. Historical Survey.- 1.1. Overall Energy Consumption 1950–1978.- 1.2. Energy Needs in Dwellings.- Space Heating.- Space Heating: Conclusions.- Water Heating.- Cooking.- Household Electrical Appliances and Lighting.- Air Conditioning.- 1.3. Energy in the Tertiary Sector.- 1.4. Impacts of the 1973/1974 Oil Crisis.- 2. Long-Term Prospects.- 2.1. New Constructions.- 2.2. Household Appliance Ownership.- 2.3. Trends in Insulation.- Existing Dwellings.- New Constructions.- 2.4. Prospects of Space and Water Heating Techniques.- Conventional Systems.- Solar Systems.- Heat Pumps.- District Heating.- New Heating Techniques: Conclusions.- 2.5. Technical Changes with Electrical Household Appliances.- 2.6. The Conditions of Technical Change.- The Actors and Their Behaviour.- Institutional Structure and Relations Between Actors.- III. Energy Demand in the Transport Sector.- 1. Historical Survey.- 2. Passenger Transport.- 2.1. Main Historical Trends.- 2.2. Travel Needs.- Home/Work Trips.- Other Urban Trips.- Holiday Trips.- Week-End Trips.- Social Trips.- Professional Trips.- 2.3. The Private Car.- Pattern of Use.- Socio-Economic Aspects.- Technical Characteristics and Specific Energy Consumption.- 2.4. Public Modes of Transport.- Supply.- Passenger Mobility by Public Modes.- Technical Characteristics and Specific Energy Consumption.- 3. Freight Transport.- 3.1. Historical Trends.- Freight Traffic and Industrial Growth.- Freight Transport, Distances and Industrial Structures.- Traffic Structure and Modal Distribution.- 3.2. Technical Characteristics and Specific Energy Consumption.- Road Transport.- Railways.- Waterways.- 4. Long-Term Prospects.- 4.1. Impacts of the 1973/1974 Oil Crisis.- The Price-Effect.- Energy Conservation Policies.- 4.2. Long-Tenn Prospects.- Urban Development and Passenger Transport.- Industrial Structure and Freight Transport 134Contents.- IV. Eneigy Demand in the Industrial Sector.- 1. Historical Survey.- 1.1. OveraU Energy Use: 1950–1977.- 1.2. Energy Uses in the Industrial Sector.- 1.3. Energy Consumption and Structural Changes.- 1.4. Technical Trends and Energy Consumption.- Effect of Size and Concentration.- Substitution Between Energy Forms.- Substitution Between Processes in the Energy Intensive Industries.- Energy Efficiency Improvements in Processes.- Development of Mechanization.- 2. The Future Prospects.- 2.1. LongTerm Technological Changes.- The Industrialist’ Behaviour and Technical Choices.- Improvement of Efficiency and Management of Industrial Installations….- Energy Form Substitutions.- Changes in the Energy Management of Industrial Sites.- Process Substitution.- 2.2. Long-Term Industrial Growth.- Major Past Trends.- Long-Term Prospects.- 3. The Steel Industry.- 3.1. Steel Production: Past Trends and Future Prospects.- 3.2. Energy in Steel Production.- Blast Furnace.- Direct Reduction.- Steel Making.- RoUing.- 3 3. Present and Future Changes in Production Processes.- Process Substitution.- Energy Savings in the Processes and Installations.- 4. The Cement Industry.- 4.1. Cement Production: Past Trends and Future Prospects.- 4.2. Energy in Cement Production.- 4.3. Present and Future Changes in Production Processes.- V. Forecasting Methods and Models.- 1. General Considerations on Energy Modelling.- 1.1. Classification of Energy Models.- 1.2. Analysis and Evaluation of Models.- 1.3. The Econometric Models.- 1.4. The Phenomenological (Technico-Economic) Models.- 1.5. Models of General Equilibrium.- 2. The MEDEE Approach: An Example of a Phenomenological Method.- 2.1. General Characteristics.- 22. The MEDEE Models.- 2.3. Scenario Design and Exploration of Long-Term Energy Demand.- 2.4. Use of the MEDEE Models.- Understanding Energy Demand Growth.- Conclusion: Prospects and Scenarios.- Socio-Economic Development and Energy Demand.- Technology and Energy.- Scenarios.- Technical Fix Scenarios.- Growth Scenarios.- The “Soft Energy Paths”.- Energy Policy and Economic Development.- Appendix 1: Data on the Residential and Tertiary Sector.- Appendix 2: Data on the Transportation Sector.- Appendix 3: Data on the Industrial Sector.- References.