Elicitation of Expert Opinions for Uncertainty and Risks

ISBN-13: 9780849310874 / Angielski / Twarda / 2000 / 328 str.

Bilal M. Ayyub

Opis

Experts, despite their importance and value, can be double-edged swords. They can make valuable contributions from their deep base of knowledge, but those contributions may also contain their own biases and pet theories. Therefore, selecting experts, eliciting their opinions and aggregating their opinions must be performed and handled carefully, with full recognition of the uncertainties inherent in those opinions.

Spis treści

Knowledge and Ignorance
Information Abundance and Ignorance
The Nature of Knowledge
Cognition and Cognitive Science
Time and its Asymmetry
Defining Ignorance in the Context of Knowledge
Exercise Problems
Information-Based System Definition
Introduction
System Definition Models
Hierarchical Definitions of Systems
Models for Ignorance and Uncertainty Types
Systems Complexity
Exercise Problems
Experts, Opinions, and Elicitation Methods
Introduction
Experts, and Expert Opinions
Historical Background
Scientific Heuristics
Rational Consensus
Elicitation Methods
Standards for Educational and Psychological Testing
Methods of Social Research
Focus Groups
Exercise Problems
Expressing and Modeling Expert Opinions
Introduction
Set Theory
Monotone Measures
Exercise Problems
Consensus and Aggregating Expert Opinions
Introduction
Methods of Scoring of Expert Opinions
Uncertainty Measures
Combining Expert Opinions
Exercise Problems
Guidance on Expert-Opinion Elicitation
Introduction and Terminology
Classification of Issues, Study Levels, Experts, and Process Outcomes
Process Definition
Need Identification for Expert-Opinion Elicitation
Selection of Study Level and Study Leader
Selection of Peer Reviewers and Experts
Identification, Selection, and Development of Technical Issues
Elicitation of Opinions
Documentation and Communication
Exercise Problems
Applications of Expert-Opinion Elicitation
Introduction
Assessment of Occurrence Probabilities
Economic Consequences of Floods
References
Indexes

O autorze

Bilal M. Ayyub