Economies in Transition: A System of Models and Forecasts for Germany and Poland

ISBN-13: 9783790807219 / Angielski / Miękka / 1993 / 292 str.

Gerhard Gehrig; Wladyslaw Welfe

Opis

Developing a system of models and forecasts for the transformation process of former centrally planned economies into market economies, this book outlines a simulation model for the united Germany showing the likely path of the "New Lands" integration into West Germany by the year 2000.

Spis treści

1. On the concept of a system of econometric forecasting and simulation models for the period of transition towards the market economies.- 1.1 Introduction.- 1.2 Towards a system of economic forecasts and policy simulations for the transition period.- 1.3 On a system of macro models.- 1.4 The system of economic forecasts and policy simulations.- 1.5 The numerical techniques.- 1.6 Further research plans.- References.- 1. Germany.- 2. The system of models.- 2.1 Introduction.- 2.2 The model for West Germany.- 2.2.1 Commodity market.- 2.2.2 Money market.- 2.2.3 Labour market.- 2.2.4 Technical details.- 2.3 The model for East Germany.- 2.4 The model for East-West trade.- 2.5 The equations of the system of models.- 2.5.1 Model for West Germany.- 2.5.2 Model for East Germany.- 2.5.3 Model for East-West trade.- 2.6 The structural equations of West Germany.- 2.6.1 Commodity market.- 2.6.2 Money market.- 2.6.3 Labour market.- 2.6.4 Regression results.- 2.7 Future improvements.- 2.8 List of variables.- 3. The basic simulation.- 3.1 Introduction.- 3.2 Assumptions.- 3.3 Selected results.- 3.4 Some comments.- 3.5 Tables (values).- 3.5.1 Endogenous variables.- 3.5.2 Exogenous variables.- 3.6 Tables (growth rates).- 3.6.1 Endogenous variables.- 3.6.2 Exogenous variables.- 3.7 Selected Graphs.- 3.7.1 Endogenous variables.- 3.7.2 Exogenous variables.- References.- Appendices.- Appendix 1. ETAS, Conception and features of an econometric model generator.- 1. Conception of the program system ETAS.- 2. Summary of features of version 1.0.- 3. Enhancements in version 1.1.- Appendix 2. On portfolio models of the Federal Republic of Germany.- 1. Introduction.- 2. Aspects of portfolio theory.- 3. Empirical portfolio models.- 4. Critical evaluation.- 5. Suggestions for further research.- 6. Literature.- 2. Poland.- 4. Quarterly model WK-91 of the Polish economy in transition.- 4.1 Introduction.- 4.2 Data base, extraneous information and estimation techniques.- 4.3 General structure of the model.- 4.3.1 Macro aggregates in the quarterly model — general framework.- 4.3.2 General assumptions on functioning of the economy in transition.- 4.3.3 Major macro-relations.- 4.4 Specification and empirical results for major blocks of variables.- 4.4.1 Final demand components.- 4.4.2 Wages, incomes and money expenditures of households.- 4.4.3 Activities and financial position of enterprises in production and services sector.- 4.4.4 Foreign trade.- 4.4.5 The banking system activitities.- 4.4.6 State budget.- 4.4.7 Prices.- 4.4.8 Employment.- 4.5 The model as a system. First conclusions.- References.- 5. Dynamic expectations in the quarterly model of the Polish economy.- 5.1 Introduction.- 5.2 Expectations in the model.- 5.3 Rational expectations algorithm.- 5.4 Estimation and base solution of the model.- 5.5 Results of policy simulations.- 5.6 Conclusions.- References.- 6. Data base for the quarterly model WK-91 of the Polish economy.- 6.1 General remarks.- 6.2 The problem of generating unobservable macro aggregates.- 6.2.1 Derivation of quarterly time series for macro aggregates for Poland.- References.- Appendices.- Appendix 1. List of variables for the quarterly model WK-91 of the Polish economy.- Appendix 2. The structure of the quarterly model WK-91 of the Polish economy.- Appendix 3. Excerpt from the quarterly data bank for the period 1989.1–1991.2.