Earthquake Prediction by Seismic Electric Signals: The success of the VAN method over thirty years

ISBN-13: 9783642244056 / Angielski / Twarda / 2012 / 254 str.

Mary S. Lazaridou-Varotsos

Opis

As evidenced dramatically and tragically in 2011 alone, earthquakes cause devastation and their consequences in terms of human suffering and economic disaster can last for years or even decades. The VAN method of earthquake prediction, based on the detection and measurement of low frequency electric signals called Seismic Electric Signals (SES), has been researched and evaluated over 30 years, and now constitutes the only earthquake prediction effort that has led to concrete successful results. This book recounts the history of the VAN method, detailing how it has developed and been tested under international scrutiny.Earthquake Prediction by Seismic Electric Signals describes, step by step, the development of the VAN methodsince1981; explains both the theoretical model underpinning the research and the physical properties of SES; analyzes the SES recordings and the prediction for each major earthquake in Greece over the last 25 years; introduces a new time domain, natural time, which plays a key role in predicting impending catastrophic events.

Spis treści

1. EARTHQUAKES, SEISMOLOGY. THE VAN EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION METHOD.- 2. HOW THE VAN RESEARCH ON EARTHQUAKES PREDICTION STARTED.- 3. THE PROCEDURE FOR THE MEASUREMENTS. THE TELEMETRIC VAN NETWORK AND HOW WE PREDICT THE EPICENTER AND MAGNITUDE.- 4. FIRST INTERNATIONAL EVALUATION OF VAN IN 1984.- 5. THE POWERFUL EARTHQUAKES OF 1986.- 6. THE DISASTROUS EARTHQUAKES IN KILLINI-VARTHOLOMIO (W. GREECE) IN 1988. PUBLIC WARNING ISSUED BY HAROUN TAZIEFF.- 7. THE FRENCH INTEREST ON VAN (1986-1989). THE BOOK OF HAROUN TAZIEFF (1989) AND THE INTERRUPTION OF THE VAN NETWORK (1989). - 8. SECOND INTERNATIONAL EVALUATION OF VAN IN 1990. CONFERENCE SUPPORTED BY ONASSIS FOUNDATION. -9. THE DISASTROUS EARHQUAKES IN PIRGOS (W. GREECE) IN 1993: THE PUBLIC WARNING.- 10. THIRD EVALUATION OF VAN: THE INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE AT CALIFORNIA (LAKE ARROWHEAD) IN 1992 AND ITS FOLLOW-UP AT BERKELEY IN 1995.- 11. THE UNITED NATIONS RECOMMENDATION ON VAN IN 1994 AND THE PRECEDING EARTHQUAKES.- 12. VAN EVALUATION BY THE ROYAL SOCIETY OF LONDON IN 1995 AND BY THE AMERICAN GEOPHYSICAL UNION IN 1996.- 13. THE 6.0 EARTHQUAKE AT CHALKIDIKI (N. GREECE) IN 1995. THE GOVERNMENT VERIFIES THE SUCCESS OF PREDICTION.- 14. THE 6.6 EARTHQUAKE AT GREVENA-KOZANI (N. GREECE) IN 1995.-15. THE DISASTROUS 6.5 EARTHQUAKE AT ERATEINI-EGION (CENTRAL GREECE) ON 15 JUNE 1995.- 16. THE INTERNATIONAL PRIZE OF ONASSIS FOUNDATION IN 1995.- 17. THE DISASTROUS 5.9 ATHENS EARTHQUAKE IN 1999.- 18. PROPOSAL FOR A NEW CONCEPT OF TIME AND ITS APPLICATIONS. NATURAL TIME.- 19. THE 6.5 EARTHQUAKE IN NORTHERN AEGEAN SEA IN 2001.- 20. WHY AND HOW WE CHANGED THE WAY TO PUBLICIZE THE PREDICTIONS SINCE 2006.- 21. THE 6.9 EARTHQUAKE AT SOUTHWESTERN GREECE ON FEBRUARY 14, 2008. IT WAS THE LARGEST DURING THE LAST 28 YEARS. THE PUBLIC WARNING.- 22. THE DISASTROUS 6.5 EARTHQUAKE BETWEEN PATRAS AND PIRGOS (W. GREECE) ON 8 JUNE 2008. THE PUBLIC WARNING.- 23. CURRENT VIEWS ON THE VAN EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION METHOD IN OTHER COUNTRIES.