Dynamic Modeling

ISBN-13: 9781461265603 / Angielski / Miękka / 2013 / 410 str.

Bruce Hannon; Matthias Ruth; D. H. Meadows

Opis

The book uses STELLA software to develop simulation models, thus allowing readers to convert their understanding of a phenomenon to a computer model, and then run it to yield the inevitable dynamic consequences built into the structure. Part I provides an introduction to modeling dynamic systems, while Part II offers general modeling methods. Parts III through VIII then apply these methods to model real-world phenomena from chemistry, genetics, ecology, economics, and engineering. A clear, approachable introduction to the modeling process, of interest in any field where real problems can be illuminated by computer simulation.

Recenzje

From a review of first edition:

"[The authors] demonstrate convincingly that ... one can learn a lot about building and experimenting with and simulating dynamic models in a number of fields. ... Highly recommended for all studying model building and practical applications of systems theory." - Choice

Spis treści

1 Introduction.- 1 Modeling Dynamic Systems.- 1.1 Model Components.- 1.2 Dynamic Modeling as a Skill and Art.- 1.3 Modeling in STELLA.- 1.4 Principles of Modeling.- 2 Some General Methods for Modeling.- 2 Four-Model Set.- 2.1 Stimulus-Response Model.- 2.2 Self-Referencing Model.- 2.3 Goal-Seeking Model.- 2.4 Goal-Setting Model.- 2.5 Examples.- 2.5.1 Exponential Decay of a Stock.- 2.5.2 Newtonian Cooling.- 3 Gradual Development of a Dynamic Model.- 3.1 Modeling Industrialization for a Simple Agrarian Society.- 3.2 Impacts of Per Capita Food Consumption on Population Growth.- 3.3 Adding Agriculture.- 3.4 Adding Industry.- 4 Two Independent Variables.- 4.1 Population Cohorts.- 4.1.1 Basic Cohort Model.- 4.1.2 Population Cohort Array.- 4.1.3 U.S. Population Growth.- 4.2 River Toxins.- 5 Randomness.- 5.1 Flipping a Coin.- 5.2 Intoxication Model.- 6 Positive and Negative Feedback.- 6.1 The Basic Model.- 6.2 Positive Feedback with Fixed Points.- 6.3 Elaborations.- 7 Derivatives and Lags.- 7.1 Introduction.- 7.2 Applications of Derivatives and Lags.- 7.2.1 Simple Population Model.- 7.2.2 Two-Population Model.- 3 Chemistry Models.- 8 The Law of Mass Action.- 8.1 Breakdown of Nitrogen Dioxide into Nitrogen Oxide and Oxygen.- 8.2 Stratospheric Ozone Depletion.- 9 Chance-Cleland Model for Enzyme-Substrate Interaction.- 10 The Olsen Oscillator.- 4 Genetics Models.- 11 Mating of Alleles.- 11.1 Heterozygosity and Disease Resistance.- 11.2 The Mating of Two Alleles into a Genotype: Proving the Hardy-Weinberg Law.- 12 Natural Selection and Mutation.- 13 Artificial Worms.- 5 Ecological Models.- 14 Robin Population.- 15 Two-Stage Insect Model.- 16 The Zebra Mussel.- 17 Single Cell Forest.- 18 Predator-Prey Models.- 18.1 Basic Model of Predator-Prey Interactions.- 18.2 Spatial Predator-Prey Model.- 19 Epidemic Modeling.- 20 Reestablishment of Wolves.- 21 Lyme Disease.- 22 Tragedy of the Commons.- 6 Economic Models.- 23 Introduction to Modeling Economic Processes.- 24 The Competitive Firm.- 25 The Monopolistic Firm.- 25.1 Basic Model.- 25.2 Taxing Monopolies.- 26 Competitive Equilibrium.- 27 Substitution.- 27.1 Isoquants.- 27.2 Finding the Profit-Maximizing Output Level and Input Combinations.- 28 Time Value.- 29 Opportunity Cost.- 30 Optimal Tree Cutting.- 31 Fisheries Reserve Model.- 32 Dynamic Scarcity.- 32.1 Competitive Scarcity.- 32.2 Monopoly Scarcity.- 33 Market Game.- 34 Pig Cycle.- 7 Engineering Models.- 35 The Assembly Line.- 35.1 Basic Model.- 35.2 Car Assembly Line.- 36 Models of Gravity and Acceleration.- 36.1 Falling Rock.- 36.2 Projectile Motion.- 36.3 Mass-Damper-Spring.- 36.4 Mechanical Amplifier.- 37 Chaos.- 37.1 A New Paradigm.- 37.2 Jenson Chaos.- 37.3 Lorenz Chaos.- 37.4 Two-Well Chaos.- 8 Conclusion.- 38 Beginning a Dialog.- Appendixes.- A1 System Requirements.- A1.1 Macintosh.- A1.2 Windows.- A2 Quick Help Guide.- A2.1 Overview of the STELLA(r) Operating Environment.- A2.2 Drawing an Inflow to a Stock.- A2.3 Drawing an Outflow from a Stock.- A2.4 Replacing a Cloud with a Stock.- A2.5 Bending Flow Pipes.- A2.6 Repositioning Flow Pipes.- A2.7 Reversing Direction of a Flow.- A2.8 Flow Define Dialog—Builtins.- A2.9 Moving Variable Names.- A2.10 Drawing Connectors.- A2.11 Defining Graphs and Tables.- A2.12 Dynamite Operations on Graphs and Tables.- References.

O autorze

Dynamic modeling refers to the use of computer programs to simulate the behavior of complex, changing systems. Such systems range from weather forecasting to the environmental impact of a pesticide to the economics of fish harvests. Hannon and Ruth have updated their introduction to modeling that has been welcomed by students in disciplines ranging from biology to chemistry to engineering to economics.