Demographics Unravelled: How Demographics Affect and Influence Every Aspect of Economics, Finance and Policy

ISBN-13: 9781119799139 / Angielski / Twarda / 2021 / 320 str.

Amlan Roy

Spis treści

Acknowledgements xvSelected Abbreviations xviiPreface xixChapter 1: Introduction 11.1 Recasting Demographics 21.2 Effects and Implications of Demographics 5Chapter 2: Core Data: Past, Present, and Future 112.1 Economic History and the History of Global Population Trends 132.2 Core Demographic Variables: Data, Analysis, and Some Observations 162.2.1 Population Size and Population Growth 162.2.2 Ageing Populations 182.2.3 Life Expectancy Increases 202.2.4 Total Fertility Rates 212.2.5 Dependency Ratios 232.2.6 Gender Ratios 262.2.7 Age Structure and Population Pyramids 292.2.8 The Demographic Transition Model 322.3 The Role of Migration 352.4 Urbanisation 462.5 Small Nation-States: Demographics 502.6 Changing Longevity--Metrics Need Changing 512.7 Changing Social and Individual Behaviour 532.8 Multiple Generations 552.9 Conclusion 57Chapter 3: Demographics and Macroeconomics 593.1 Demographics and Economic Growth 603.2 The "Demographic Dividend" and GDP per Capita Growth 663.3 Inflation 703.4 Debt, Deficits, and Fiscal Sustainability 843.5 Demographics, Monetary Policy, and Interest Rates 903.6 Demographics and Unemployment 933.7 Demographics, Capital Flows, and Current Account 953.8 Conclusions 96Chapter 4: Demographics and Asset Prices 994.1 Theories of Life-Cycle Consumption, Savings, and the Permanent Income Hypothesis 1004.1.1 Life-Cycle Consumption Theory 1004.1.2 Permanent Income Hypothesis 1024.1.3 Consumption, Savings, and Intertemporal Loans: Pioneer Paul Samuelson 1044.2 How Demographics Influences Equity Prices and Markets 1054.3 Will There Be an Asset Market Meltdown When the Baby Boomers Retire? 1164.4 Demographic Changes and Interest Rates (Bond Yields) 1194.5 Demographics and Risk Premiums 1244.6 Asset Holdings and Age 1254.7 Demographics and Equity Sectors 1284.8 Demographics and Real Estate 1364.9 Demographics and Commodities 1404.10 Conclusions 143Chapter 5: Health and Longevity 1475.1 Health Issues, Expenditures, and Measures 1495.1.1 Health Expenditures 1505.1.2 Global Health Security 1525.1.3 Global Burden of Disease 1555.1.4 Health in Emerging Countries 1575.2 Longevity 1635.2.1 Increases in Life Expectancy and Conditional Life Expectancy 1645.2.2 Life Expectancy vs. Healthy Life Expectancy 1665.2.3 DALYs and Their Causes 1685.2.4 Longevity and Mortality: More Than Just Births and Deaths 1695.2.5 Longevity Risk and the Uncertain Future of Longevity 1725.2.6 Longevity Forecasting Models: Countries and Regions 1745.2.7 Short Summary of Longevity Models 1775.2.8 Annuities as a Longevity Risk Management Tool 1835.2.9 Other Longevity Risk Management Tools and Instruments 1875.3 Conclusions 190Chapter 6: Pensions and Retirement 1936.1 A Brief History of Social Security and Pensions 1946.1.1 Pre-Social Security 1956.1.2 Committee on Economic Security 1966.2 Evaluating Pension Systems: Indicators and Cross-Country Comparisons 2006.3 Evaluating Age-Related Pension Expenditures across Countries 2086.4 Pensions and Pension Systems: The Experts 2106.5 Pensions, Asset Allocation, Investments, and Capital Markets 2246.6 Pensions and Corporate Finance/Equity Prices 2306.7 The Future of Retirement and Conclusions 231Chapter 7: Quality of Life, Gender, Governance and Sustainability 2357.1 Utility Theory, Social Welfare, and Happiness 2367.2 Quality of Life: Human Development Index (HDI) 2437.3 Gender and Governance 2457.4 Corruption and Transparency 2497.5 Sustainability and Climate Change 2527.6 Politics and Geopolitics 2547.7 Conclusion 256Chapter 8: Summary and Conclusions 257Notes 263Index 283

O autorze

AMLAN ROY is a global macro-researcher and recognised public speaker with 35 years of experience across investment banking, investment management and academia. He is the founder of Global Macro Demographics. He was most recently Head of Global Macro Policy Research and Senior MD at State Street Global Advisors (until end-June 2021) and prior to that MD and Global Head of Demographics & Pensions Research at Credit Suisse Investment Bank (1998-2016). His research is in macroeconomics, demographics and retirement, and asset pricing. He is a Research Associate at London School of Economics' Systemic Risk Centre and Honorary Fellow of the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries. He has a BA in Economics (St Stephen's College), MBA (IIM Ahmedabad), MA and PhD (University of Iowa).