Decision Science and Technology: Reflections on the Contributions of Ward Edwards

ISBN-13: 9781461373155 / Angielski / Miękka / 2012 / 434 str.

Barbara A. Mellers; David A. Schum; James Shanteau

Opis

Decision Science and Technology is a compilation of chapters written in honor of a remarkable man, Ward Edwards. Among Ward's many contributions are two significant accomplishments, either of which would have been enough for a very distinguished career. First, Ward is the founder of behavioral decision theory. This interdisciplinary discipline addresses the question of how people actually confront decisions, as opposed to the question of how they should make decisions. Second, Ward laid the groundwork for sound normative systems by noticing which tasks humans can do well and which tasks computers should perform. This volume, organized into five parts, reflects those accomplishments and more.
The book is divided into four sections: Behavioral Decision Theory' examines theoretical descriptions and empirical findings about human decision making. Decision Analysis' examines topics in decision analysis.Decision in Society' explores issues in societal decision making. The final section, Historical Notes', provides some historical perspectives on the development of the decision theory. Within these sections, major, multi-disciplinary scholars in decision theory have written chapters exploring some very bold themes in the field, as an examination of the book's contents will show.
The main reason for the health of the Decision Analysis field is its close links between theory and applications that have characterized it over the years. In this volume, the chapters by Barron and Barrett; Fishburn; Fryback; Keeney; Moreno, Pericchi, and Kadane; Howard; Phillips; Slovic and Gregory; Winkler; and, above all, von Winterfeldt focus on those links. Decision science originally developed out of concern with real decision problems; and applied work, such as is represented in this volume, will help the field to remain strong.

Spis treści

Preliminaries. Introduction. 1. Introduction to a Festschrift; B.A. Mellers. Behavioral Decision Theory. 2. On the Interplay of Riskless and Risky Utility; R.D. Luce. 3. The Paradoxes of Allais, Stochastic Dominance, and Decision Weights; M.H. Birnbaum. Who's Afraid of a Little Risk? New Evidence for General Risk Aversion; E.U. Weber. 5. Manipulating Hedonic Strategies of Choice; A. Schwartz, et al. 6. How Good are Fast and Frugal Heuristics?; G. Gigerenzer, et al. 7. Decision Making by Domain Experts: The GNAHM Effect; J. Shanteau. Decision Analysis. 8. On the Relevance of Behavioral Decision Research for Decision Analysis; D. von Winterfeldt. 9. Evaluation of Probabilities: A Level Playing Field? R.L. Winkler. 10. A Robust Bayesian Look at the THeory of Precise Measurement; E. Moreno, et al. 11. Probabilistic Reasoning and the Science of Complexity; D.A. Schum. 12. Linear Inequalities and the Analysis of Multi-Attribute Value Matrices; F. Hutton Barron, B.E. Barrett. 13. Life and Death Decisions for Individuals and Couples; R.A. Howard. 14. Robot Ethics, Value Systems and Decision Theoretic Behaviors; T.S. Levitt. 15. Decision-Theoretic Troubleshooting: A Framework for Repair and Experiment; J.S. Breese, D. Heckerman. Decisions in Society. 16. Public Values and Public Policy; R.L. Keeney. 17. Group Elicitation of Probability Distributions: Are Many Heads Better then One? L.D. Phillips. 18. The QALY Model: Utilities for Cost-Utility Analysis in Health Care; D.G. Fryback. 19. Risk Analysis, Decision Analysis, and the Social Context for Risk Decision Making; P. Slovic, R. Gregory. Historical Notes. 20. The Making of Decision Theory; P.C. Fishburn. 21. A Brief History of SPUDM, or How Europe Took Off on Behavioral Decision Research; C. Vlek. 22. Ward Edwards and New Professional Organizations; J. Shanteau, et al. 23. Some Reflections on Ward Edwards; D.A. Schum. The Last Word. 24. Festschrift: A Book and a Party; W. Edwards.