Deception and Delay in Organized Conflict: Essays on the Mathematical Theory of Maskirovka

ISBN-13: 9783030961763 / Angielski / Miękka / 2022 / 88 str.

Rodrick Wallace

Opis

This book explores the role of deception, delay, and self-deception in the dynamics of organized conflict, taking a formal approach that hews closely to the asymptotic limit theorems of information and control theories. The resulting probability models can, with some effort—and some confidence—be converted to statistical tools for the analysis of real-time observational and ‘experimental’ data on institutionalized confrontation across both traditional and emerging ‘Clausewitz Landscapes’.

Spis treści

1. Failure of control

Introduction

The Data Rate Theorem

Cognition rate and stability

Multiple delays

Multiple theaters

Control system thrashing

Discussion

References

2 Failure of institutional cognition I

Introduction

The Data Rate Theorem

Scalarizing resources and their interactions

Fog, friction, and delay

Institutional cognition under delay

Discussion

References

3 Failure of institutional cognition II

Introduction

Institutional cognition reconsidered

Iterated ‘Free Energy’ and system dynamics

Some examples

Some remarks on workgroup topology

Discussion

Mathematical Appendix

References

4 The ‘Self-Maskirovka’ of military scientism

Introduction

The Data Rate Theorem

Scalarizing resources and their interactions

A first failure model

A second failure model

Other ’regression models’

Discussion

References

5 Extending the models