PART I. CURRENT ECONOMIC MODEL.-1. Growth model.- 2. Financial risks.-3. Financial repression.- 4. Government guarantees.- 5. International distortions.- 6. Overview.- PART II. DOMESTIC REFORMS.- 7. Banking. 8. Shadow banking.-9. Stock markets.- 10. Bond markets.- 11. Local government debt.- 12. Real estate market.- PART III. INTERNATIONAL REFORMS.- 13. Exchange rate liberalization.- 14. Renminbi internationalization.- 15. Capital account liberalization.- 16. Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and the New Silk Road.- PART IV. POLITICS.- 17. Political conflicts over reforms.- 18. Strategies to overcome opposition to reform.- PART V. RISKS AND CONSEQUENCES.- 19. Domestic risks.- 20. International consequences of reform.- 21. The Future.-
Paul Armstrong-Taylor is Resident Professor
of International Economics at John Hopkins School of Advanced International
Studies, Nanjing University, China, where he teaches classes on finance,
strategy and the Chinese economy. Previously, he was Visiting Professor of
Economics and Finance at the Antai School of Economics and Management, Shanghai
Jiaotong University. His professional experience
includes positions as a consultant at Monitor Group and London Economics, and
as an investment banker at Morgan Stanley.
Paul received his BA and MPhil in Economics
from Cambridge University, and his PhD in Economics from Harvard
University. His research interests
include the Chinese economy, game theory, business strategy and finance. He has published numerous articles on China
and the economy for academic and non-academic media, and has spoken at a number
of events, including The China Economics Forum and the Annual US-China Business
Council Conference in Shanghai.
China’s unprecedented growth has
transformed the lives of its people and impacted economies across the globe. The
financial system supported this growth by providing cheap loans to boost
investment and, in a virtuous cycle, rapid growth insured that these loans
could be repaid. However, in recent years, this virtuous cycle has turned
vicious. The financial system has continued to lend freely and cheaply as the
economy has slowed, and the risk of crisis has mounted. In response, the
government has initiated the most ambitious financial reforms in twenty years. Financial
markets, businesses and governments are concerned about these risks and are
struggling to understand what the reforms will mean for China and the rest of
the world.
Debt
and Distortion: Risks and Reforms in the Chinese Financial System addresses the need for an up-to-date and accessible, yet
comprehensive analysis of China’s financial system and related reforms. It will
take a systematic look at China’s financial system: how it worked in the past
and how it will work in the future; why reforms are needed; what risks they
bring; and their impact on China and the rest of the world. By analyzing the
topic in terms of a few fundamental distortions, this book makes an otherwise
complex topic accessible while simultaneously providing new insights. These
distortions provide a simple framework for understanding the nature of the
Chinese financial system and its future prospects.
Reform in China will transform the world’s
second largest economy and impact everything from Peruvian copper mines to the
London housing market. Business people, government officials, financiers and
informed citizens would all benefit from understanding how changes in China’s
financial system will shape the global economy in the coming decades.