Cost-Benefit Analyses of Climate Change: The Broader Perspectives

ISBN-13: 9783034898317 / Angielski / Miękka / 2012 / 148 str.

Ferenc Toth

Opis

The Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) was founded in 1992 as a "Blue List" research institute, with the Federal Ministry for Education, Science, Research and Technology and the Ministry for Science, Research and Culture of the federal state of Brandenburg each provid ing half ofthe funding. PIK currently has a staff of 100 (1997), including about 75 scientists and guest scientists, as well as a number of students and temporary assistants. Further expansion is taking place at the institute site in the "Albert Einstein" Science Park in Potsdam. The interdisciplinary nature of climate impact research, especially the interface between the natural scientific and socioeconomic dimensions of environmental research, is reflected at PIK in the close cooperation with partner institutes at national and international level. The flexible frame work created for the institute enables new problems and issues to be taken up as they arise. As a center of scientific innovation, PIK also coordinates international activities in the fields of climate impact research and Earth System analysis. The institute houses project offices for the IGBP international research programs, for example. Simulations of Global Change are performed on PIK's supercomputer using models and data drawn from various disciplines. The parallel compu ter (an IBM-SP2) boasts 20 gigaflops of computing power, making it one of the most powerful research computers in Germany. The Workshop on Cost-Benefit Analyses of Climate Change was jointly organized by PIK and the Wuppertal Institute for Energy, Climate, and Environment (WI)."

Spis treści

I: Models, concepts, and policy instruments.- Beyond costs and benefits of climate change: A workshop overview.- 1. Introduction.- 2. An increasing scope of integration.- 2.1. Cost and benefit estimates.- Benefits.- Costs.- 2.2. Integrated cost/benefit studies.- 2.3. Towards integrated climate-economy models.- 3. Integrated assessments: Simulation models.- 3.1. Fully integrated models.- 3.2. Partially integrated models.- 4. Integrated assessments: Optimization models.- 4.1. Fully integrated models.- Global single-region, aggregated models.- Global multi-region, aggregated models.- Sectorally disaggregated models.- 4.2. Partially integrated assessments.- 5. Layout for the book.- 6. Closing remarks.- First principles and the economic comparison of regulatory alternatives in global change.- 1. Introduction.- 2. Taxes versus standards versus marketable permits under uncertainty.- 3. Marketable permits versus joint implementation under certainty.- 4. Concluding remarks.- Dynamics of policy instruments and the willingness to participate in an international agreement.- 1. Introduction.- 2. Impacts of different kinds of policy instruments.- 2.1 Taxes.- 2.2 Tradable permits.- 2.3 Joint implementation.- 3. Participation in an international agreement to mitigate greenhouse gases emissions.- 4. Need for future research activities.- Global warming and the insurance industry.- 1. Introduction.- 2. Increasing disaster losses.- 3. Indications of climate change.- 4. Climate change predictions.- 5. Economic effects of climate change.- 6. Conclusions for the insurance industry.- II. Stabilization targets, costs, and technologies.- European stabilization targets: What do they bring, how much do they cost?.- 1. European stabilization targets: The leading climate change policy.- 2. Lack of knowledge about the realistic costs of reducing CO2 emissions.- 3. What are the additional costs of CO2 mitigation in the next 10 to 50 years?.- 4. Final suggestions for research.- Climate protection and the economy of prevention.- 1. Global scenarios: Wide range of conceivable ‘energy futures’.- 1.1 Rising energy consumption is not a matter of fate, but political will.- 1.2 Climate protection policies avoid grave future risks — and are cost-effective.- 2. European Union: Risk minimization is financable.- 3. Germany: Room for manoeuvre and deficits in implementation.- 3.1 Business-as-usual versus climate protection and risk minimization: The scenarios of the German Bundestag’s Climate Study Commission.- Scenario definition.- Analysis of scenario findings.- 3.2 Instruments of climate protection and risk minimization policy.- 4. Outlook.- The value of advanced energy technologies in stabilizing atmospheric CO2.- 1. Introduction.- 2. The economics of CO2 consideration ceilings.- 3. Energy, agriculture, land-use, and economy.- 4. Implications of stabilizing the atmosphere at 550 ppmv.- 5. The value of enhanced technology.- 6. Technology and protocols to stabilize the atmosphere.- 7. Conclusions.- Policy context: Follow-up of the Berlin climate conference.- 1. Introduction.- 2. The Berlin Conference.- 3. Forthcoming events.- The implications of including sulfate aerosols on scenarios of admissible greenhouse gas emissions.- 1. Introduction.- 2. Climate window — base case.- 3. Climate window including aerosols.- 4. Conclusions.- The tolerable windows approach to climate control: Optimization, risks, and perspectives.- 1. Introduction.- 2. The philosophy of the Tolerable Windows Approach (TWA).- 3. A simple example: The WBGU scenario.- 4. Optimization of cumulative emissions.- 4.1 Mathematics of optimal control.- 4.2 Realization of optimal solutions.- 5. Including uncertainties: Risk analysis.- 6. Conclusions.- Appendix 1: List of participants.- Appendix 2: Workshop program.