Corporate Valuation: Measuring the Value of Companies in Turbulent Times

ISBN-13: 9781119003335 / Angielski / Twarda / 2016 / 512 str.

Mario Massari

Opis

Risk consideration is central to more accurate post-crisis valuation Corporate Valuation presents the most up-to-date tools and techniques for more accurate valuation in a highly volatile, globalized, and risky business environment. This insightful guide takes a multidisciplinary approach, considering both accounting and financial principles, with a practical focus that uses case studies and numerical examples to illustrate major concepts. Readers are walked through a map of the valuation approaches proven most effective post-crisis, with explicit guidance toward implementation and enhancement using advanced tools, while exploring new models, techniques, and perspectives on the new meaning of value. Risk centrality and scenario analysis are major themes among the techniques covered, and the companion website provides relevant spreadsheets, models, and instructor materials. Business is now done in a faster, more diverse, more interconnected environment, making valuation an increasingly more complex endeavor. New types of risks and competition are shaping operations and finance, redefining the importance of managing uncertainty as the key to success. This book brings that perspective to bear in valuation, providing new insight, new models, and practical techniques for the modern finance industry.

• Gain a new understanding of the idea of -value, - from both accounting and financial perspectives
• Learn new valuation models and techniques, including scenario-based valuation, the Monte Carlo analysis, and other advanced tools
• Understand valuation multiples as adjusted for risk and cycle, and the decomposition of deal multiples
• Examine the approach to valuation for rights issues and hybrid securities, and more

Traditional valuation models are inaccurate in that they hinge on the idea of ensured success and only minor adjustments to forecasts. These rules no longer apply, and accurate valuation demands a shift in the paradigm. Corporate Valuation describes that shift, and how it translates to more accurate methods.

Spis treści

Preface xi

Acknowledgments xiii

About the Author xv

CHAPTER 1 Introduction 1

1.1 What We Should Know to Value a Company 1

1.2 Valuation Methods: An Overview 2

1.3 The Time Value of Money 4

1.4 Uncertainty in Company Valuations 5

1.5 Uncertainty and Managerial Flexibility 9

1.6 Relationship between Value and Uncertainty 15

CHAPTER 2 Business Forecasting for Valuation 18

2.1 Introduction 18

2.2 Key Phases of the Business Plan Elaboration 18

2.3 What Drives the Preparation of a Business Plan? 27

2.4 The Main Methodological Issues 49

CHAPTER 3 Scenario Analysis 54

3.1 Introduction 54

3.2 What Is Scenario Analysis? 56

3.3 Difference between Scenario and Sensitivity Analysis 56

3.4 When to Perform Scenario Analysis 57

3.5 Worst and Best Cases and What Happens Next 58

3.6 Multi–Scenario Analysis 59

3.7 Pros and Cons 61

3.8 How to Perform Scenario Analysis in Excel 62

3.9 Conclusions 71

CHAPTER 4 Monte Carlo Valuation 72

4.1 Introducing Monte Carlo Techniques 72

4.2 Monte Carlo and Corporate Valuation 74

4.3 A Step–by–Step Procedure 76

4.4 Case Study: Outdoor Inc. Valuation 80

4.5 A Step–by–Step Guide Using Excel and Crystal Ball 100

CHAPTER 5 Determining Cash Flows for Company Valuation 125

5.1 Introduction 125

5.2 Reorganization of the Balance Sheet 126

5.3 Relationship between a Company′s Balance Sheet and Income Statement 134

5.4 From the Economic to the Financial Standpoint 137

5.5 Cash Flow Definitions and Valuation Models 141

5.6 Business Plan and Cash Flow Projections 142

CHAPTER 6 Choosing the Valuation Standpoint 151

6.1 Debt and Value 151

6.2 First Problem: The Relationship between Leverage and Value 152

6.3 Second Problem: Alternative Valuation Techniques When Debt Benefits from a Fiscal Advantage 162

6.4 Third Problem: The Choice between an Asset–Side versus an Equity–Side Perspective 165

6.5 From the Asset Value to the Equity Value 167

CHAPTER 7 Leverage and Value in Growth Scenarios 168

7.1 Growth, Leverage, and Value 168

7.2 Nominal and Real Discounting 169

7.3 Problems with the Discount of Tax Benefit 172

7.4 Cost of Capital Formulas in Growth Scenarios 173

7.5 The WACC: Some Remarks 178

7.6 Real Dimension of Tax Benefits 180

Appendix 7.1: Derivation of the Formulas to Calculate the Cost of Capital 183

Appendix 7.2: Pattern of K∗ el in a Growth Context: Some Remarks 190

CHAPTER 8 Estimating the Cost of Capital 194

8.1 Defining the Opportunity Cost of Capital 194

8.2 A Few Comments on Risk 194

8.3 Practical Approaches to Estimate Keu 197

8.4 Approach Based on Historical Returns 197

8.5 Analysis of Stock Returns 198

8.6 Analysis of Accounting Returns 201

8.7 Estimating Expected Returns from Current Stock Prices 201

8.8 Models Based on Returns′ Sensitivity to Risk Factors 204

8.9 The Capital Asset Pricing Model 205

8.10 Calculating Rf 206

8.11 Calculating Rp 208

8.12 Estimating 212

8.13 Dealing with Specific Risks 218

8.14 Conclusions on the Estimation of the Opportunity Cost of Capital 221

8.15 Cost of Debt 222

8.16 Cost of Different Types of Debt 224

Appendix 8.1: CAPM with Personal Taxes 227

CHAPTER 9 Cash Flow Profiles and Valuation Procedures 229

9.1 From Business Models to Cash Flow Models 229

9.2 Cash Flow Profiles of Business Units versus Whole Entity 230

9.3 Examples of Cash Flow Profiles 231

9.4 Problems with the Identification of Cash Flow Models 236

9.5 Cash Flow Models in the Case of Restructuring 237

9.6 Debt Profile Analysis 237

9.7 Debt Profile beyond the Plan Horizon Forecast 239

9.8 The Valuation of Tax Advantages: Alternatives 239

9.9 Guidelines for Choosing Debt Patterns for Determining Valuations 245

9.10 Synthetic and Analytical Procedures Valuation 246

9.11 The Standard Procedure 247

CHAPTER 10 A Steady State Cash Flow Model 249

10.1 Value as a Function of Discounted Future Results 249

10.2 Capitalization of a Normalized Monetary Flow 250

10.3 The Perpetual Growth Formula 264

10.4 Formulas for Limited and Variable (Multi–Stage) Growth 275

10.5 Conclusions 279

CHAPTER 11 Discounting Cash Flows and Terminal Value 280

11.1 Explicit Projections 280

11.2 Estimation of the Terminal Value 281

11.3 Evaluation of Gas Supply Co. 283

CHAPTER 12 Multiples: An Overview 295

12.1 Preliminary Remarks 295

12.2 Theory of Multiples: Basic Elements 299

12.3 Price/Earnings Ratio (P/E) 303

12.4 The EV/EBIT and EV/EBITDA Multiples 307

12.5 Other Multiples 311

12.6 Multiples and Leverage 312

12.7 Unlevered Multiples 316

12.8 Multiples and Growth 320

12.9 Relationship between Multiples and Growth 325

12.10 PEG Ratio 326

12.11 Value Maps 327

Appendix 12.1: P/E with Growth 330

CHAPTER 13 Multiples in Practice 332

13.1 A Framework for the Use of Stock Market Multiples 332

13.2 The Significance of Multiples 335

13.3 The Comparability of Multiples 339

13.4 Multiples Choice in Valuation Processes 340

13.5 Estimation of "Exit" Multiples 343

13.6 An Analysis of Deal Multiples 344

13.7 The Comparable Approach: The Case of Wine Co. 349

Appendix 13.1: Capital Increases and the P/E Ratio 358

CHAPTER 14 The Acquisition Value 361

14.1 Definitions of Value: An Overview 361

14.2 Value Created by an Acquisition 364

14.3 Value–Components Model 367

14.4 Further Considerations in Valuing Acquisitions 372

14.5 Acquisition Value of Plastic Materials Co. 375

14.6 Acquisition Value of Controlling Interests 377

14.7 Other Determinants of Control Premium 382

14.8 Acquisition Value in a Mandatory Tender Offer 384

14.9 Maximum and Minimum Exchange Ratios in Mergers 386

14.10 Exchange Ratio and Third–Party Protection 389

Appendix 14.1: Other Value Definitions 390

CHAPTER 15 Value and Prices in the Market for Corporate Control 393

15.1 Price Formation in the Market for Control 393

15.2 Benefits Arising from Acquisitions 396

15.3 From the Pricing Model to the Fair Market Value 399

15.4 Fair Market Value Estimated Adjusting Stand–Alone Cash Flows 401

15.5 Premiums and Discounts in Valuation 408

15.6 The Most Common Premiums and Discounts 410

15.7 Value Levels and Value Expressed by Stock Prices 415

15.8 Estimating Control Premiums 417

15.9 Estimating Acquisition Premiums 420

15.10 Acquisition and Control Premiums in a Perfect World 422

15.11 Estimating the Value of Controlling Stakes: An Example 426

15.12 Minority Discount 427

15.13 Discount for the Lack of Marketability 429

15.14 Definitions of Value and Estimation Procedures 431

CHAPTER 16 Valuation Considerations on Rights Issues 432

16.1 Introduction to Rights Issues 432

16.2 Setting the Subscription Price 433

16.3 Value of Preemptive Rights 437

16.4 Conclusions 446

CHAPTER 17 Carbon Risk and Corporate Value 448

17.1 Why Carbon Risk Matters 448

17.2 From Carbon Risks to Carbon Pricing 450

17.3 Incorporating Carbon Risks in Corporate Valuation 453

17.4 Carbon Beta 466

Index 471

O autorze

MARIO MASSARI is full professor of corporate finance and former head of the finance department at Bocconi University (Milan).

GIANFRANCO GIANFRATE is a Giorgio Ruffolo Fellow at the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University (Cambridge, MA).

LAURA ZANETTI is associate professor of corporate finance at Bocconi University, academic director of the BSc in Economics and Finance, and a research fellow at the Centre for Applied Research in Finance.

Blurb

How to Dial In Value Through the Lens of Risk

Corporate Valuation presents a more accurate and informed approach to valuing companies based on a variety of models and enhancements grounded in risk centrality and scenario analysis. Written by a standout authorial team bringing vast experience and analysis to the subject, this must–have guidebook is the first to approach valuation with both accounting and financial principles, along with corresponding tools for quick and effective implementation in actual practice. This immediately useful guide enables you to:

• Gain a new understanding of where to find a company′s real value
• Master new valuation models and techniques not found anywhere else
• Examine a fresh approach to valuation for special circumstances, including rights issues, climate change risks, and more

Evolving your skillset for today′s volatile, fast–paced markets is about more than gaining an edge it′s about surviving, and only Corporate Valuation gives you a comprehensive resource of tools and know–how for valuing companies with the highest level of precision.