Cognition and Chance: The Psychology of Probabilistic Reasoning

ISBN-13: 9780805848991 / Angielski / Miękka / 2004 / 472 str.

Raymond S. Nickerson

Opis

The ability to think probabilistically is important for many reasons. Lack of it makes one prone to a variety of irrational fears and vulnerable to scams designed to exploit probabilistic naivete, precludes intelligent assessment of risks, ensures the operation of several common biases, impairs decision making under uncertainty, facilitates the misinterpretation of statistical information, precludes critical evaluation of likelihood claims, and generally undercuts rational thinking in numerous ways. Cognition and Chance presents an overview of the necessary information needed to make educated assumptions about the statistical or probabilistic characteristics of a situation to better prepare the reader to make intelligent assessments of risk, enhance decision making under uncertainty, facilitate the understanding of statistical information, and critically evaluate the likelihood of clams. For this reason, the book appeals to researchers and students in the areas of probability, statistics, psychology, business, economics, decision theory, and those who evaluate social dilemmas. The only prerequisite is standard high school math. In the book, Dr. Nickerson investigates such questions

Recenzje

"This book is an insightful lesson on how one's worldview affects one's thinking, even in certain mathematical applications."

—Journal of Psychology and Christianity

"...the book brings together many diverse sources and results on a host of topics....it could serve as a useful starting point for a new researcher beginning a study of some aspect of quantitative reasoning."
—Technometrics

"...for the newcomer the book provides an excellent introduction to this field of research, and the connoisseur will appreciate the book as a useful handbook allowing for quick refreshers of the many empirical results already available."
—Biometrics

"I liked this book a lot....Nickerson has done a fine job in putting together coherently a wide range of material...this book is remarkably well timed."
—Howard Wainer, Ph.D.
Distinguished Research Scientist, National Board of Medical Examiners

"This book presents a more inclusive report of the literature on probabilistic reasoning, without a specific application in mind, allowing for both broader coverage of the field, and for deeper exploration of inherently interesting and provocative reasoning and problems....The quality of scholarship...is impressive, with...classic citations as well as a diversity of perspectives representing current thinking on the problems....Business school students would probably greatly benefit from this book....As a researcher, I find this book to be a very useful collection of the research on probabilistic reasoning, and would absolutely want a copy for my own library....I could imagine using this text in a graduate or upper level undergraduate course on judgment and decision making."
—Julie Downs, Ph.D.
Department of Social and Decision Sciences, Carnegie Mellon University

"It is comprehensive in its approach to scholarship and does not choose a single point of view from among the usual ones. Instead, it offers wise and clever comments on the many different perspectives that exist."
—Jonathan Baron, Ph.D.
Professor of Psychology, University of Pennsylvania

Spis treści

Contents: Foreword. Probability and Chance. Randomness. Coincidences. Inverse Probability. Some Instructive Problems. Paradoxes and Dilemmas. Statistics. Estimation and Prediction. Perception of Covariation. Choice Under Uncertainty. People as Intuitive Probabilists. Concluding Comments.

O autorze

Nickerson, Raymond S.