Business Cycles

ISBN-13: 9780470499177 / Angielski / Twarda / 2009 / 224 str.

Fischer Black

Opis

An updated look at what Fischer Black's ideas on business cycles and equilibrium mean today Throughout his career, Fischer Black described a view of business fluctuations based on the idea that a well-developed economy will be continually in equilibrium. In the essays that constitute this book, which is one of only two books Black ever wrote, he explores this idea thoroughly and reaches some surprising conclusions. With the newfound popularity of quantitative finance and risk management, the work of Fischer Black has garnered much attention. Business Cycles and Equilibrium-with its theory that economic and financial markets are in a continual equilibrium-is one of his books that still rings true today, given the current economic crisis. This Updated Edition clearly presents Black's classic theory on business cycles and the concept of equilibrium, and contains a new introduction by the person who knows Black best: Perry Mehrling, author of Fischer Black and the Revolutionary Idea of Finance (Wiley). Mehrling goes inside Black's life to uncover what was occurring during the time Black wrote Business Cycles and Equilibrium, while also shedding light on what Black would make of today's financial and economic meltdown and how he would best advise to move forward. The essays within this book reach some interesting conclusions concerning the role of equilibrium in a developed economy

• Warns about the use and abuse of modeling
• Explains the risky business of risk in a straightforward and accessible style
• Contains chapters dedicated to "the effects of uncontrolled banking," "the trouble with econometric models," and "the effects of noise on investing"
• Includes commentary on Black's life and work at the time Business Cycles and Equilibrium was written as well as insight as to what Black would make of the current financial meltdown

Engaging and informative, the Updated Edition of Business Cycles and Equilibrium will give you a better understanding of what is really going on during these uncertain and volatile financial times.

Spis treści

Foreword.

Introduction.

Chapter 1: Banking and Interest Rates in a World Without Money: The Effects of Uncontrolled Banking.

Chapter 2: Active and Passive Monetary Policy in a Neoclassical Model.

Chapter 3: Rational Economic Behavior and the Balance of Payments.

Chapter 4: Uniqueness of the Price Level in Monetary Growth Models with Rational Expectations.

Chapter 5: Purchasing Power Parity in an Equilibrium Model.

Chapter 6: Ups and Downs in Human Capital and Business.

Chapter 7: How Passive Monetary Policy Might Work.

Chapter 8: What a Non–Monetarist Thinks.

Chapter 9: Global Monetarism in a World of National Currencies.

Chapter 10: The ABCs of Business Cycles.

Chapter 11: A Gold Standard with Double Feedback and Near Zero Reserves.

Chapter 12: The Trouble with Econometric Models.

Chapter 13: General Equilibrium and Business Cycles.

Chapter 14: Noise.

Index.

O autorze

Fischer Black is regarded as one of the great innovators of modern finance theory. He is most famous for cofounding the legendary Black–Scholes equation, although he contributed much more to finance in the areas of portfolio insurance, commodity futures pricing, bond swaps, interest rate futures, and global asset allocation models. Black worked at the University of Chicago and the MIT Sloan School of Management, as well as Goldman Sachs. He received his PhD in applied mathematics from Harvard University. Black died in 1995, two years before the Nobel Prize was awarded to Myron Scholes and Robert C. Merton for their work on option pricing. Since the Nobel Prize is not given posthumously, Black was given a prominent mention for the key role he played in developing the equation.

Blurb

"This book and the articles that preceded it electrified the first generation of Wall Street quants with Fischer′s famous rallying cry, ′In my model, markets work,′ and challenged them to ′imagine a world without money.′ He gave us clear, logically consistent macroeconomics, without jargon or unnecessary math, which was directly useful for making money. The material is as fresh and as relevant to profit as when it was written." Aaron Brown, AQR Capital Management, author of The Poker Face of Wall Street and A World of Chance

"Fischer Black has long been known as a genius in finance. He was also a genius on business cycles and monetary theory, and this book is the proof." Tyler Cowen, Professor of Economics, George Mason University

"Fischer Black is a household name on Wall Street. Had he lived, Fischer would have shared (with Robert Merton and Myron Scholes) the Nobel Prize for their work in financial economics. But Fischer also made extraordinarily deep contributions to macroeconomics. This collection of Fischer′s key macro analyses is a feast for the intellect, but one that is very easily digested thanks to Perry Mehrling′s marvelous introduction, historical perspective, and unique ability to connect Fischer′s many dots. The book is of special relevance to anyone hoping to understand today′s financial crisis and its macroeconomic and policy ramifications. I recommend it most highly." Laurence Kotlikoff, Professor of Economics, Boston University