Bet To Win At The One Half Mile Harness Race Tracks

ISBN-13: 9781539109716 / Angielski / Miękka / 2016 / 388 str.

Dr Joseph Edward Brierly

Opis

The author Dr. Joseph E. Brierly earned a Ph.D. in mathematics from the Wayne State University in 1975. As part of his graduate level mathematics program he took many advanced courses in the theory of probability and statistics. Later on in his professional career as a mathematician working for the US Army he mastered computer systems design. Interest in applying mathematics to games of chance followed naturally from his mathematics and computer skills. He spent his hobby time pursuing finding ways to optimize bets at harness race tracks and optimizing chances for winning a lottery. This book offers harness race fans an extensive statistical analysis of outcomes of harness races. Most everything impacting the outcome of a harness race is found some where in this book. Every important factor is statistically analyzed. For example, questions like what are the best and worst post-positions? What affect does ability of harness race drivers have? Many situations were investigated statistically to identify profitable bets. Three well-known 1/2 mile tracks were sampled for a complete season in order to compile a database of outcomes tied to their payoffs. In two previous books the author did a similar analysis of both 5/8th and one mile tracks. These books are still available and should complement this book dedicated to statistically analyzing 1/2 mile harness race tracks. At the heart of winning at the harness race track is having understanding that other bettors do not have. Any strategy could be profitable provided it is based on knowing and using statistically profitable betting situations not generally known by the other bettors. Horse race gamblers should keep in mind that every dollar bet at any racetrack automatically loses 20 to 35 percent before the race begins from house take and state tax. This makes it difficult to break even much less make a profit. Yet, the author found ways to make profit on his betting every year for well over 20 years. This could not have happened without using both quantitative and qualitative analysis based on an intricately designed simulation and expert system battery of programs. The book divulges many of the secrets employed by the author to make yearly profits betting at the harness races. The basic system designed by Dr. J. Brierly relies on simulating a race using accurate handicaps for major factors, such as, post position, driver skill, trainer skill, horse speed, past performance outcomes, class factors, historical data for each horse in the race, weather and climate conditions and to a degree what is called trip handicapping. Basically, the author simulates each race using handicaps for all of the factors impacting the outcome. The best entries are next subjected to qualitative analysis of statistics for non-quantifiable factors like recent scratches, breaks, type of driver, long layoffs, and much more. Many simulated picks are ruled out based on statistics for qualitative factors. Bets are made only on situations that show an overall statistical profit over a large sample. This book uses a method known as 'fuzzy sampling' not employed in the first two books. Fuzzy sampling allows one to do statistics on look-a-like samples. To illustrate suppose an entry picked to win by simulation has 10 identified qualitative traits. Ordinarily finding a sample with that many traits would result in a very small sample. Using fuzzy sampling one could look at all outcomes that have 9 of 10 of the traits, 8 of 10 of the traits, ...etc.. Surprisingly it is found that many look-alike samples enlarge the sample size dramatically and offer statistically valid profit-making situations. This innovation cannot be found any where in books on harness racing but here. This is truly the best book ever written on harness race betting. The other two previous books are of the same caliber but do not have fuzzy sampling.