Behavioral Decision Making

ISBN-13: 9781461294603 / Angielski / Miękka / 2011 / 408 str.

George Wright

Spis treści

I Individual Decision Making.- 1 Psychology of Risky Decisions.- Models of Risky Choice.- Contingent Processing in Risky Choice.- Task Complexity.- Information Display.- Response Modes.- Quality of Option Set.- Frameworks for Task and Context Effects.- A Production System Approach to Models of Strategy Selection in Choice.- Summary.- References.- 2 The Framing of Decisions and the Psychology of Choice.- The Evaluation of Prospects.- The Framing of Acts.- The Framing of Contingencies.- The Framing of Outcomes.- Discussion.- References.- 3 Decisional Variance.- Personality and Decision Making.- Cognitive Style and Decision Making.- Cognitive Style and the Design of Decision Support Systems (DSS).- Contingent Decision Behavior.- Decisional Style or Contingent Decision Making?: Some Useful Methodology from Personality Psychology.- References.- 4 Cognitive Approaches to Decision Making.- Developments in Cognitive Psychology.- Identification of Separate Stages.- Complex Processing Models.- Applications of the Cognitive Approach.- Decision Strategies.- Perceptual Aspects of Decision Making.- Future Developments.- Notions of Limited Capacity.- Elementary Information-Processing Stages.- Conclusion.- References.- II Small-Group Decision Making.- 5 Social Interdependence and Decision Making.- Interdependent Preferences.- Empathy and Altruism.- Envy and Social Comparison.- The General Problem.- Interdependence Structures: Changing the Rules.- Conclusion.- References.- 6 Combining Individual Judgments.- Why Groups?.- Aggregation Methods.- Mathematical Aggregation.- Estimation of Unknown Quantities.- Weighting Individual Judgments.- Discrete Probability Judgments.- Probability Density Functions for Continuous Quantities.- Evaluative Judgments and Preferences.- Aggregation of Verbal Judgments.- Behavioral Aggregation.- Group Process and the Judgment Task.- Input Variables.- Conformity.- Polarization.- Effectiveness of Behavioral Aggregation.- Mixed and Aided Aggregation.- Conclusion.- References.- III Organizational Decision Making.- 7 Organizational, Group, and Individual Decision Making in Cross-Cultural Perspective.- Japanese versus American Decision-Making Processes.- Managerial Communication.- Managerial Values.- Interaction between the Task and Decision-Making Style.- Group Polarization.- Individual Decision Making under Uncertainty.- Practical Implications of Cross-Cultural Research on Decision Making.- References.- 8 Contexted Decision Making: A Socio-organizational Perspective.- Decision Making in Organizations: Conventional Analyses.- The Social Process Critique.- The Structural Power Critique.- Studying Decision Making in Organizations.- The Communicative Rationality Critique.- Conclusion.- References.- 9 Sociological Approaches to Power and Decisions.- Three Conceptions of Power.- Decisional or Pluralist Accounts of Power.- Nondecisionalism or the Two Faces of Power.- Radical Approaches to Power.- Conclusion: The Case of Business Power.- References.- 10 Decision Making in Organizations: The Effective Use of Personnel.- A Brief Historical Background.- Occupational Psychology’s Decision-Making Framework.- Scientific Management—The Forerunner.- Taylor’s Work in Relation to Occupational Psychology.- Personnel Selection and Decision Making.- Validation Studies.- Tests and Discrimination.- The Criterion Problem.- Statistical Decision Methods in Selection.- Selection Interviewing.- Practical Recruiting and Selecting of Staff.- Training Staff.- Employee Appraisal.- Payment for Work.- Implementing Personnel Decisions.- Leadership.- Participation at Work.- Organizational Design and Development.- Bargaining: Conflict and Power.- Conclusion.- References.- IV Improving Decisions: The Role of Decision Aids.- 11 Design of Decision-Aiding Systems.- A Taxonomy of Decision Aids.- Type 1—Bootstrapping Aids.- Type 2—Recomposition Aids.- Type 3—Problem-Structuring Aids.- Problem Representation Based on the Nature of the Structure.- Built-in Structure.- Assumed Structure.- Elicited Structure.- Principal Considerations in System Design.- Model Selection.- Use of External Data Base.- User-System Interface.- Monitoring the Decision Maker.- Decision Aids as a Statistical Monitor.- Control in a Decision-Making Process.- Implementations of Decision Support Technology.- Summary.- References.- 12 Handling Uncertainty: Levels of Analysis of Decision Problems.- Types of Uncertainty.- Handling Uncertainty.- Levels of Abstraction in Representing Decision Problems.- Level 1: Concrete Operational: Making “Best Assessments”.- Level 2: Formal Operational: Sensitivity Analysis.- Level 3: Developing Structure within a Single Structural Variant.- Level 4: Problem-Structuring Languages.- Level 5: Scenarios Exploring Small Worlds.- Higher Levels of Abstraction.- Implications of the Multilevel Scheme for Supporting Organizational Decision Making.- Implications of the Multilevel Scheme for the Study of Intuitive Decision Making.- References.- 13 Decisions in Design: Analyzing and Aiding the Art of Synthesis.- Design Decisions and Design Methods.- Decision Making in the Design Process.- Aiding Design Decision Making.- Extrapolations from Contemporary Decision Theory.- Methodologies for “Open” Problems in Design.- Conclusions.- References.- V Judgmental Forecasting.- 14 Prediction, Diagnosis, and Causal Thinking in Forecasting.- The Diagnostic Process.- On the Psychology of Spurious Correlation.- Implications.- Conclusion.- References.- 15 A Comparative Evaluation of Objective and Subjective Weather Forecasts in the United States.- Weather Forecasting Procedures and Practices: An Overview.- Objective versus Subjective Forecasts.- Probabilistic Forecasts of Precipitation Occurrence.- Categorical Forecasts of Maximum and Minimum Temperatures.- Categorical Forecasts of Cloud Amount.- Recent Trends in Forecast Quality.- Probabilistic Forecasts of Precipitation Occurrence.- Categorical Forecasts of Maximum and Minimum Temperatures.- Categorical Forecasts of Cloud Amount.- Subjective Weather Forecasting: Role and Impact of Objective Forecasts.- Weather Forecasting and Forecasting in Other Fields: Similarities and Differences.- Summary and Conclusion.- References.- IV Decision Theory: Areas of Future Impact.- 16 Education and Decision Theory: A Personal View.- Restructuring the Institution.- Rethinking the Curriculum.- Reexamining Assessment.- Aggregating Components.- Marking Components.- Scoring Multiple-Choice Items.- Conclusion.- References.- 17 Choice Decision and the Anticipation of Events.- Introduction: Choosing an Approach.- A Brief Description of Personal Construct Theory.- The Fundamental Postulate and Corollaries.- The Nature of Constructs.- Dimensions of Transition.- Construing Danger.- The Perception of Danger.- Dimensions of Transition and Corollaries Relevant to the Perception of Danger.- Games and Imperfect Rationality.- A Primitive Game.- PCT Interpretation of the Game.- PCT Applied to War Games and Driving Games.- A Suitable Theory for Describing and Explaining Decision-Making Processes.- References.

O autorze

George Wright is a psychologist with an interest in the role and validity of judgment in decision making and forecasting. He is especially interested in the use of management science- and behaviorally-based methods to improve decision-making. He has published in key journals, and is the Editor of the Journal of Behavioral Decision Making. He has consulted with firms such as IBM, ICL, NEC, Petronas, Jordan Ministry of Planning, and the Scottish Football Association.