Art of the Long View: Planning for the Future in an Uncertain World

ISBN-13: 9780471977858 / Angielski / Miękka / 1997 / 292 str.

Peter (Global Business Network) Schwartz

Opis

What increasingly affects all of us, whether professional planners or individuals preparing for a better future, is not the tangibles of life - bottom-line numbers, for instance - but the intangibles: our hopes and fears, our beliefs and dreams. Only stories - scenarios - and our ability to visualize different kinds of futures adequately capture these intangibles.

Spis treści

Introduction to the Paperback Edition:

The Strategic Conversation –
Broadening The Long View

The Pathfinders Tale

The Smith & Hawken Story: The Process of Scenario–Building

Uncovering the Decision

Information–Hunting and Gathering

Creating Scenario Building Blocks

Anatomy of a New Driving Force: The Global Teenager

Composing a Plot

The World in 2005: Three Scenarios

Rehearsing The Future

Epilogue: To My Newborn Son

Afterword: The Value of a Strategic Conversation

Appendix: Steps to Developing Scenarios

O autorze

PETER SCHWARTZ is one of the world′s leading futurists. He is president of Global Business Network, an international think tank and consulting firm in Emeryville, California, that includes many of the world′s leading–edge thinkers about the future, as well as innovative scientists, artists, and business executives. His previous publications include Seven Tomorrows, a book of global scenarios jointly authored with Paul Hawken and Jay Ogilvy.

Blurb

"Artful scenario spinning is a form of convergent thinking about divergent futures. It ensures that you are not always right about the future but–better–that you are almost never wrong about the future. The technology is powerful, simple, and enjoyable, and so is Schwartz′s book." –Stewart Brand What increasingly affects all of us, whether professional planners or individuals preparing for a better future, is not the tangibles of life–bottom–line numbers, for instance–but the intangibles: our hopes and fears, our beliefs and dreams. Only stories–scenarios–and our ability to visualize different kinds of futures adequately capture these intangibles. In The Art of the Long View, now for the first time in paperback and with the addition of an all–new User′s Guide, Peter Schwartz outlines the "scenaric" approach, giving you the tools for developing a strategic vision within your business. Schwartz describes the new techniques, originally developed within Royal/Dutch Shell, based on many of his firsthand scenario exercises with the world′s leading institutions and companies, including the White House, EPA, BellSouth, PG&E, and the International Stock Exchange.