Apophenia's Antidote: A Probability and Statistics Primer

ISBN-13: 9781517036645 / Angielski / Miękka / 2016 / 428 str.

Mark Jones Lorenzo

Opis

Offering a unique, comprehensive, and multidisciplinary approach to probability and statistics, "Apophenia's Antidote" is the perfect inoculation against dubious statistics, questionable inferences, and all other varieties of statistical illiteracy. Our brains are natural pattern detectors, which delivered significant survival benefits when our ancestors were prancing around the Serengeti. Instead of ignoring the rustling of leaves--which could very well be caused by a hiding lion, waiting patiently to snatch some prey--our ancestors exited the scene, evading the potential danger as fast as possible (the "flight" in the fight-or-flight response). Early humans who didn't dismiss their suspicions, and who were paranoid at every turn, were selected to survive; those who were too nonchalant and didn't err on the side of caution, figuring the rustling of leaves was due to the wind--well, those humans by and large did not make the cut. So we have all been left with a rich genetic legacy: more often than not seeing patterns where there are none, and finding meaning in coincidences that have no overarching connection. Though most of us no longer prance around the Serengeti, those who still persistently perceive meaningful patterns where there are none, like a looping Rorschach test with an infinite number of referents, suffer from what is termed "apophenia." Can a firm grasp on mathematics--specifically, statistical data analysis, along with its trusty handmaiden, probability theory--help to separate the signal from the noise? In short: Is there an antidote to apophenia? In "Apophenia's Antidote," Mark Jones Lorenzo aims to find out. A wide-ranging work covering not only statistics and probability but also their historical foundations, this primer doesn't skimp on the mathematical details despite references from the philosophy of science to psychology to pop culture, and everything in between, making themselves at home here. Though not a textbook, and requiring a good working knowledge of high school mathematics to fully appreciate, "Apophenia's Antidote" nonetheless offers students (high school or college) and the intellectually curious a cogent gateway toward an understanding of probability and statistics. Although there is some theory and proof proffered, detailed, fully worked-out examples usually motivate the presentation of topics. From medical testing to Major League Baseball, from wealth inequality to professional wrestling, and from the stock market to radon gas, Lorenzo leaves no stone unturned in his search for an antidote to apophenia.

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