Anthropogenic Climate Change

ISBN-13: 9783642642135 / Angielski / Miękka / 2012 / 351 str.

Hans Von Storch

Opis

GKSS SCHOOL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH The National Research Laboratory GKSS (member of the Hermann von Helmholtz-Association of German Reserach Centres) located in Geesthacht, near Hamburg, is engaged in environmental research. The main interest of the research center focuses on regional climatology and climate dynamics, interdecadal variations in the state of the Baltic and North Sea and related estuaries, and the flow ofheavy metals, nutrients, and other materials in river catchments to the coastal zones. This research aims at-developing an under standing ofchanges in the environment, both as a result ofinternal (natural) dynamics and as a result of anthropogenic interference. In an effort to dis seminate the results of these research activities, as well as to initiate a broad discussion among senior scientists in the field, and younger colleagues from all areas of the globe, the Institutes of Hydrophysics and Atmospheric Physics at GKSS have instituted the GKSS School of Environmental Research. Appliedenvironmental research has always containedanelement ofaware ness ofthe societal implications and boundary conditions associated with en vironmental concerns. Consequently, the School of Environmental Research adheres to the philosophy that all discussion regarding environmental change should incorporate a social component. This necessity has been well acknowl edged and is apparent by the incorporation ofsocial scientists into the series of lectures. Senior scientists from Europe and North America were invited to give lectures to "students" from all parts of the globe."

Spis treści

I The Climate System.- 1 The Global and Regional Climate System.- 1.1 Prologue.- 1.2 The Global View: Energy Balance Models.- 1.3 The Global Atmospheric Circulation: Emergence from a State at Rest.- 1.4 The Regional Climate: Controlled by Planetary Scales.- 1.4.1 Conditional Statistical Models.- 1.4.2 The Case of Rumanian Precipitation.- 1.4.3 The Case of Short Term Event Statistics.- 1.5 Feedback of Regional Scales on Global Scales.- 1.5.1 Parameterizations.- 1.5.2 Randomized Parameterization.- 1.6 Epilogue.- 1. 7 Acknowledgements.- 2 Three Dimensional Numerical Simulation of Climate: The Fundamentals.- 2.1 Introduction 38.- 2.2 Model Equations.- 2.3 Vertical Coordinate Systems.- 2.3.1 Solar Radiation.- 2.3.2 Infrared Radiation.- 2.3.3 Net Heating/Cooling Rates.- 2.3.4 Physical Processes.- 2.3.5 Precipitation and Cloud Processes.- 2.4 Surface Processes.- 2.4.1 Boundary Fluxes at the Earth's Surface.- 2.4.2 Examples of Computations of Surface Hydrology.- 2.5 Ocean Models.- 2.6 Sea Ice Models.- 2.6.1 Ice Dynamics.- 2.7 Suggestions for Interesting Climate Model Websites.- 2.8 Future Development.- 2.9 The Climate System Model and Parallel Climate Model.- 2.10 Acknowledgements.- 3 Hydrological Modeling from Local to Global Scales.- 3.1 Introduction.- 3.2 The Modeling Strategy Across a Range of Scales.- 3.3 Modeling Water and Energy Fluxes Across a Range of Scales.- 3.3.1 Model Testing at Small Scales.- 3.3.2 Recent Model Testing at Medium Scales.- 3.3.3 Recent Model Testing at Global Scales.- 3.4 Remote Sensing of Environmental Forcing Variables.- 3.5 Discussion and Summary.- 3.6 Acknowledgements.- 4 Natural Climate Variability and Concepts of Natural Climate Variability.- 4.1 Introduction: Definitions of Climate Variability.- 4.2 Estimation of Frequency-Decomposed Covariances of the Present-Day Climate.- 4.2.1 Univariate Case.- 4.2.2 Multivariate Case.- 4.3 Concepts on the Generation of Temporal Variability.- 4.3.1 Classical Hypotheses and the Concept of Multiple Equilibria: The Origin of Mean ..- 4.3.2 The Concept of Stochastic Climate Models: The Origin of Covariance ..- 4.4 Concepts on the Generation of Spatial Variability.- 4.4.1 The General Idea.- 4.4.2 An Example: Identification of Processes Responsible for the Dominant Spatial Features of the Two Anisotropic Modes in the ECHAM1/LSG Atmosphere.- 4.5 Conclusions.- II Climate Change.- 5 Weather Modification by Cloud Seeding - A Status Report 1989-1997.- 5.1 Introduction.- 5.2 The Static Mode of Cloud Seeding.- 5.3 The Dynamic Mode of Cloud Seeding.- 5.4 Hygroscopic Seeding.- 5.5 Weather Modification Research Funding.- 5.6 Lessons Learned that the Global Climate Change Community Should Pay Attention To.- 5.6.1. Hygroscopic Seeding and the CCN-Albedo Hypothesis.- 5.6.2 The Importance of Natural Variability.- 5.6,3 The Dangers of Overselling.- 5.6.4 The Capricious Administration of Science and Technology.- 5.6.5 Scientific Credibility and Advocacy.- 5.7 Should Society Wait for Hard Scientific Evidence?.- 5.8 Acknowledgements.- 6 The Detection of Climate Change.- 6.1 Introduction.- 6.2 Basic Ideas.- 6.3 More Elaborate Ideas.- 6.3.1 Changing Natural Variability.- 6.3.2 Taking Sampling Variability Into Account.- 6.3.3 The Power of the Optimal Detector.- 6.4 Signal Patterns and Spaces.- 6.4.1 The Signal Pattern Problem.- 6.4.2 The Signal Space Problem.- 6.4.3 Attribution of Climate Change.- 6.4.4 Applying the Signal Pattern Approach.- 6.4.5 A Signal Space Application.- 6.5 Space-Time Filter Theory.- 6.5.1 The Basic Filter Theory.- 6.5.2 An Application - Detecting the Solar Signal.- 6.5.3 An Extension - More Signals.- 6.6 Detection with Pattern Similarity Measures.- 6.7 Summary.- III Implications.- 7 Cooperative and Non-Cooperative Multi-Actor Strategies of Optimizing Greenhouse Gas Emissions.- I: THE SINGLE-ACTOR PROBLEM.- 7.1 Introduction.- 7.2 The Single-Actor SIAM Model.- 7.2.1 The Climate Model.- 7.2.2 Cost Functions.- 7.3 Optimal CO2 Emission Paths for the Single-Actor Case.- 7.3.1 Prescribed Scenarios.- 7.3.2 Sensitivity Studies.- 7.4 Summary and Conclusions: Single-Actor Analysis.- II: THE NON-COOPERATIVE MULTI-ACTOR CASE.- 7.5 The Multi-Actor Case.- 7.5.1 n Identical Non-Cooperative Actors.- 7.5.2 The Single Mitigator Problem.- 7.5.3 Trading Actors.- 7.7 Outlook.- 7.8 Acknowledgements.- 8 “Mastering” the Global Commons.- 8.1 Prologue.- 8.2 Overview.- 8.3 Introduction.- 8.5 Climate Impact Research.- 8.6 Climate Policies as an Optimal Control Problem?.- 8.7 Linking Nature, the Economy and Society.- 8.8 Summary.- 9 Climate Science and the Transfer of Knowledge to Public andPolitical Realms.- 9.1 Collegial Comments.- 9.2 Introduction.- 9.3 The Survey.- 9.4 The Sample.- 9.5 Results.- 9.7 Acknowledgements.- References.

O autorze

Prof. Dr. Hans von Storch ist Direktor des Instituts für Küstenforschung, GKSS, Geesthacht und lehrt am Institut für Meteorologie der Universität Hamburg.