An Introduction to Decision Theory

ISBN-13: 9781316606209 / Angielski / Miękka / 2017 / 348 str.

Martin Peterson

Opis

Now revised and updated, this introduction to decision theory is both accessible and comprehensive, covering topics including decision making under ignorance and risk, the foundations of utility theory, the debate over subjective and objective probability, Bayesianism, causal decision theory, game theory, and social choice theory. No mathematical skills are assumed, with all concepts and results explained in non-technical and intuitive as well as more formal ways. There are now over 140 exercises with solutions, along with a glossary of key terms and concepts. This second edition includes a new chapter on risk aversion as well as updated discussions of numerous central ideas, including Newcomb's problem, prisoner's dilemmas, and Arrow's impossibility theorem. The book will appeal particularly to philosophy students but also to readers in a range of disciplines, from computer science and psychology to economics and political science.

Spis treści

Preface; 1. Introduction; 2. The decision matrix; 3. Decisions under ignorance; 4. Decisions under risk; 5. Utility; 6. The mathematics of probability; 7. The philosophy of probability; 8. Bayesianism and pragmatic arguments; 9. Causal vs evidential decision theory; 10. Risk aversion; 11. Game theory I: basic concepts and zero-sum games; 12. Game theory II: nonzero-sum and cooperative games; 13. Social choice theory; 14. Overview of descriptive decision theory; Appendix A. Glossary; Further reading; Index.