Advances in Decision Analysis: From Foundations to Applications

ISBN-13: 9780521863681 / Angielski / Twarda / 2007 / 640 str.

Ward Edwards; Detlof Von Winterfeldt; Ralph F. Miles

Opis

By framing issues, identifying risks, eliciting stakeholder preferences, and suggesting alternative approaches, decision analysts can offer workable solutions in domains such as the environment, health and medicine, engineering and operations research, and public policy. This book reviews and extends the material typically presented in introductory texts. Not a single book covers the broad scope of decision analysis at this advanced level. It will be a valuable resource for academics and students in decision analysis as well as decision analysts and managers

Spis treści

1. Introduction Ward Edwards, Ralph F. Miles, Jr and Detlof von Winterfeldt; Part I. History and Foundations of Decision Analysis: 2. The emergence of decision analysis Ralph F. Miles, Jr; 3. The foundations of decision analysis revisited Ronald A. Howard; 4. Decision analysis: a personal account of how it got started and evolved Howard Raiffa; 5. Reflections on the contributions of Ward Edwards to decision analysis and behavioral research Lawrence D. Phillips and Detlof von Winterfeldt; Part II. Structuring Decision Problems: 6. Defining a decision analytic structure Detlof von Winterfeldt and Ward Edwards; 7. Developing objectives and attributes Ralph L. Keeney; Part III. Probabilities and Bayes Nets: 8. Eliciting probabilities from experts Steven C. Hora; 9. Aggregation of expert probability judgments Robert T. Clemen and Robert L. Winkler; 10. Model building with belief networks and influence diagrams Ross D. Shachter; 11. A Bayesian approach to learning causal networks David Heckerman; Part IV. Utilities: 12. Utility and risk preferences David E. Bell; 13. Practical value models Ralph L. Keeney and Detlof von Winterfeldt; 14. Extensions of the subjective expected utility model Robert F. Nau; Part V. Risk Analysis: 15. Probabilistic risk analysis for engineered systems Vicki M. Bier and Louis Anthony Cox, Jr; 16. The engineering risk analysis method and some applications M. Elisabeth Paté-Cornell; 17. Health risk analysis for risk management decision-making Louis Anthony Cox, Jr; Part VI. Decision Analysis in a Behavioral and Organizational Context: 18. What have we learned from our mistakes? Barbara Mellers and Connson Locke; 19. Decision conferencing Lawrence D. Phillips; 20. Resource allocation decisions Don N. Kleinmuntz; 21. From decision analysis to the decision organization James E. Matheson and David Matheson; 22. Building decision competency in organizations Carl S. Spetzler; 23. Negotiation analysis: between decisions and games James K. Sebenius; Part VII. Applications of Decision Analysis: 24. The adoption of multi-attribute utility theory for the evaluation of plutonium disposition options in the United States and Russia John C. Butler, Alexander N. Chebeskov, James S. Dyer, Thomas A. Edmunds, Jianmin Jia and Vladimir I. Oussanov; 25. Choosing a tritium supply technology for nuclear weapons: reflections on a controversial decision analysis Detlof von Winterfeldt; 26. Applications of decision analysis to the military systems acquisition process Dennis M. Buede and Terry A. Bresnick; 27. Balancing environmental and operational objectives in a nuclear refueling strategy Phillip C. Beccue and Jeffrey S. Stonebraker; 28. Perspective on decision analysis applications Donald L. Keefer, Craig W. Kirkwood, and James L. Corner.