A Simulation Approach to the Study of Human Fertility

ISBN-13: 9789020707656 / Angielski / Miękka / 1978 / 224 str.

Gigi Santow; G. Santow

Opis

In the first part, comprising Chapters One to Four, an examination of historical and contemporary models of population growth led to the decision to study changes in fertility by means of a biological micro simulation model.

Spis treści

1. Introduction.- 1.1. Types and uses of models.- 1.2. Simulation models.- 1.3. The development of population models.- 1.4. The Monte Carlo technique and microsimulation.- 2. The Model.- 2.1. Introduction.- 2.2. The choice of a model.- 2.3. The choice of suitable input data.- 2.4. Preliminary testing of the model.- 3. Biological Input.- 3.1. Introduction.- 3.2. The probability of conception.- 3.2.1. Fecundability.- 3.2.2. Foetal loss.- 3.3. Temporary and permanent sterility.- 3.3.1. The limits of reproductive life.- 3.3.2. Primary and secondary sterility.- 3.3.3. Gestation.- 3.3.4. Post partum amenorrhoea.- 4. Refinement of the Model.- 4.1. Introduction.- 4.2. Variations in temporary and permanent infecundability.- 4.2.1. Gestation and post partum amenorrhoea.- 4.2.2. Sterility and menopause.- 4.3. Variations in the probability of conception.- 4.4. The simulation of Hutterite fertility.- 5. The Effects on Fertility of Breastfeeding and Sexual Abstinence.- 5.1. The relationship between the durations of breastfeeding and post partum amenorrhoea.- 5.2. The rationale for prolonged periods of lactation and post partum sexual abstinence.- 5.3. The theoretical effects on fertility of breastfeeding and sexual abstinence.- 5.4. The simulation of Yoruba fertility.- 6. The Physiological Relationship between Fertility and Infant and Child Mortality.- 6.1. Introduction.- 6.2. The estimation of infant and child mortality.- 6.3. The effect of infant and child mortality on fertility.- 7. The Effects on Fertility of Contraception and Family Size Ideals.- 7.1. Introduction.- 7.2. Models of the effect on fertility of the use of contraception.- 7.3. The simulation of Yoruba fertility incorporating family size ideals.