A Century of Crisis and Conflict in the International System: Theory and Evidence: Intellectual Odyssey III

ISBN-13: 9783319860909 / Angielski / Miękka / 2018 / 419 str.

Michael Brecher

Spis treści

1. Multiple Paths to Knowledge

A. INTERNATIONAL CRISIS BEHAVIOR (ICB) PROJECT: OVERVIEW

Origins 

Colleagues, Coders and Advisers 

Rationale and Methods 

Objectives 

Formative Publications (1977-1980) 

Case Studies – Qualitative Analysis 

Data Sets and Aggregate Analysis

B. MILLENNIAL REFLECTIONS ON CRISIS AND CONFLICT

Advocates and Critics

Rationale

Diversity in International Studies

C. INTELLECTUAL ODYSSEY: PHASES, THEMES, CONCEPTS  

Phases and Themes

Political Leadership and Charisma (Odyssey I)

Dynamics of the Arab/Israel Conflict (Odyssey II)

Interstate Crises and Conflicts (Odyssey III)      

Concepts           

Subordinate State System

Foreign Policy System

International System

Foreign Policy Crisis

International Crisis

Unified Model of Crisis

Crisis Severity

Crisis Impact

Protracted Conflict

Polycentrism

2. Theory I: Core Concepts and Systems

A. CORE CONCEPTS

International Crisis and Protracted Conflict

Severity and Impact

B. SYSTEM AND CRISIS

International System

Systemic Crisis

Berlin Blockade Crisis 1948-49

India/Pakistan Crisis over Kashmir 1965-66

Severity and Impact 

Unit-System Linkages

3. Theory II: Unified Model of Crisis (UMC) and the ICB Framework

A. UNIFIED MODEL OF CRISIS

Conceptual Guidelines: Overview 

Onset Phase--Pre-Crisis Period: Hypotheses on Onset; Crisis Onset Model Escalation Phase--Crisis Period: Hypotheses on Escalation 

De-Escalation Phase--End Crisis Period: Hypotheses on De-Escalation

Impact Phase--Post-Crisis Period: Hypotheses on Impact

B. CHANGES IN ICB STRUCTURE

Recent Additions to Crisis-Conflict Project

Overview of Findings       

4. General Findings: Foreign Policy Crises

Dataset: 29 Cases

Context Dimensions

Methodology in Case Studies: An Unresolved Debate

General Findings on Attributes of Foreign Policy Crises: 

                                     Trigger 

                                     Triggering Entity 

                                     Duration 

                                     Decisions 

                                     Decision-Makers      

                                     Attitudinal Prism 

                                     Values 

Findings on Coping: Crisis Management

                                      Information Processing

                                      Consultation

                                      Decisional Forum

                                      Search for, and Consideration of, Alternatives

Findings on System Structures

                                      Multipolarity 

                                      Bipolarity 

                                      Bipolycentrism

                                      Unipolycentrism

Coping with Foreign Policy Crises: New Evidence Confronts Conventional Wisdom                                                                              Hypotheses on Effects of Time and Impact of Stress

                                Cognitive Dimension 

                                Decisional Dimension  

                              Shared Response to Stress 

Explanation – Commonality in Coping with High Stress 

Stress-Behavior Relationship: Evidence from 29 Foreign Policy Crises 

Test of Neo-Realism: Evidence from 29 Foreign Policy Crises

5. Theory III: Interstate Conflicts

Conflict Resolution Model           

Basic Causes of Conflict Resolution

                                    Collective Exhaustion

                                    Changes in Balance of Capability

                                     Domestic Pressures for Conflict Resolution                                      External Pressures for Conflict Resolution 

                                     Reduction in Discordant Objectives                         

                                     Reduction in Conflict-Sustaining Acts

Perceptual Calculus

Catalyst

Hypotheses on Conflict Resolution

6. Select Case Study Findings on Interstate Conflict: Africa and Americas

A. AFRICA

Chad/Libya 

Ethiopia/Somalia

Western Sahara 

B. AMERICAS

Costa Rica/Nicaragua

7. Select Case Study Findings on Interstate Conflict: Asia

Afghanistan/Pakistan 

China/Vietnam

8. Select Case Study Findings on Interstate Conflict: Europe and the Middle East

A. EUROPE

Finland/Russia-USSR

Poland/Russia-USSR

B. MIDDLE EAST     

Iran/Iraq

9. Select Case Study Findings on Interstate Conflict: Inter-Region

Georgia/Russia-USSR

Inter-Korea 

North Vietnam/U.S. 

Taiwan Strait

10. What Have We Learned about Interstate Conflict?

Hypotheses and Evidence on Conflict Onset 

Hypotheses and Evidence on Conflict Persistence 

Hypotheses and Evidence on Conflict Resolution<div><br>11. Critique of International Studies

A. SHORTCOMINGS

Intolerance of Competing Paradigms, Models, Methods, Findings  

Closed-Mind Mentality

Tendency to Research Fashions                                                                                                                                                                                   Retreat from Science in IR, IS, WP

Low Value placed on Cumulation of Knowledge

B. FLAWED DICHOTOMIES

Theory vs. History as Approaches to Knowledge

Deductive vs. Inductive Paths to Theory 

Horizontal (breadth) vs. Vertical (depth) Focus of Inquiry 

Aggregate Data vs. Case Study Methods of Analysis 

Large ‘N’ vs. Small ‘N’ clusters of data 

System vs. Actor as the optimal Level of Analysis 

Rational Calculus vs. Psychological Constraints on choice and the related divide (Reality vs. Perceptions as key to explain state behavior)  Neo-Realism vs. Neo-Institutionalism or Constructivism as the correct Paradigm for the Study of World Politics                      

C. FINAL WORDS

O autorze

Michael Brecher is the R.B. Angus Professor of Political Science at McGill University, Canada.

Blurb

This book is designed to present a fully developed theory of international crisis and conflict, along with substantial evidence of these two closely related phenomena. The book begins with a discussion of these topics at a theoretical level, defining and elaborating on core concepts: international crisis, interstate conflict, severity, and impact. This is followed by a discussion of the international system, along with two significant illustrations, the Berlin Blockade crisis (1948) and the India-Pakistan crisis over Kashmir (1965-66). The book then presents a unified model of crisis, focusing on the four phases of an international crisis, which incorporate the four periods of foreign policy crises for individual states. Findings from thirteen conflicts representing six regional clusters are then analyzed, concluding with a set of hypotheses and evidence on conflict onset, persistence, and resolution.