A CGE Analysis of Trade Policy Options for the Palestinian Economy : Computable General Equilibrium Modeling

ISBN-13: 9783838326429 / Angielski / Miękka / 2009 / 136 str.

Ohan Balian

Opis

This study constructs a static trade focused computable general equilibrium model to analyze the effects of four policy scenarios on the Palestinian economy. The results of these four simulation exercises demonstrate that first, reductions in transaction costs substantially increase the volume of trade and improve the Palestinian terms of trade. Second, the lower dependency of the Palestinian workforce on Israel also increases exports by 8%, but real household income falls since workers who were previously employed in Israel are now forced to work at the lower Palestinian wage rate. And third, simulations of the full-separation scenarios demonstrate that the outcome primarily depends on whether separation is achieved through peaceful negotiations or unilaterally through the Intifada. The simulation results of this last scenario show that the volume of trade is substantially reduced by as much as 56% for exports and 30% for imports.

O autorze

Dr.Ohan has been working in the field of economics for over 20 years with a specialization in the Economics of the Middle East. He received his PhD in Economics from The American University in Washington D.C. and has worked as an Economic Policy Advisor with the United Nations, the World Bank, and with governments of many developing countries.