Broad Scale Coastal Simulation: New Techniques to Understand and Manage Shorelines in the Third Millennium

ISBN-13: 9789402404272 / Angielski / Miękka / 2018 / 398 str.

Nicholls, Robert J.

Opis

This volume details research underpinning the 'Coastal Simulator' developed by the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research. The Simulator provides a framework to analyze long term coastal evolution taking account of all the relevant factors.

Coastal zones exemplify the environmental pressures we face: their beauty attracts settlement, they offer potential for diverse economic activities, and they are sensitive natural habitats for important species, as well as providing a range of ecosystem services. They are also extremely vulnerable to the vicissitudes of climate change, which include rising sea levels and changes in extreme events such as storms. With large populations living in coastal and estuarine cities facing the ongoing threat of inundation, coordinated management is essential, especially as coastal zones form a linked system in which piecemeal, uncoordinated management could be counterproductive.

Spis treści

Chapter 1 - The Challenge for Coastal Management During the Third Millennium

Summary

1.1 Introduction

1.2 Coastal Management in the Third Millennium: The Need for an Integrated Response

1.3 Conceptualizing and Designing a Coastal Simulator

1.4 Scenarios for Coastal Assessment

1.5 The Study Sites

1.6 Conclusions and Next Steps

Acknowledgements

References

 

Chapter 2 - Climate Downscaling: Local Mean Sea-Level, Surge and Wave Modelling

Summary

2.1 Introduction

2.2. Regional Scale Variability in Climate and Sea Level

2.3. Storms in the Present and Future Climate

2.4. Model Forcing from Hadley Centre Climate Model

2.5. Surge and Wave Models and the Downscaling Methodology

2.6. Model Results for Future Climate Scenarios

2.7. Conclusions and Next Steps

Acknowledgements

References

 

Chapter 3 - Broad-Scale Hydrodynamic Simulation, Wave Transformation and Sediment Pathways

Summary      

3.1 Introduction

3.2 Methodology for Transferring Waves and Surge Towards the Coastline and Assessing Residual Sediment Transport

3.3 Changes in Inshore Waves Due to Climate Change and Sea Level Rise        

3.4 Influence of Sea Level Rise on Sediment Pathways

3.5. Conclusions and Next Steps

References  

 

Chapter 4 – Land Use Dynamics and Coastal Management

Summary

4.1. Introduction

4.2.

Modelling Land Use Change in Coastal Areas

4.2.1 Challenges

4.2.2 Spatial Dynamic Modelling: Some Principles

4.2.3 Socio-Economic Storylines

4.3. Translating Socio-Economic Storylines with an Algorithm-Based Approach

4.4. Translating Socio-Economic Storylines with A Choice-Based Approach

4.5. Conclusions and Next Steps

References

 

Chapter 5 - Evaluating Broad-Scale Morphological Change in the Coastal Zone Using a Logic Based Behavioural Systems Approach

Summary

1.1 Introduction

1.2 Capturing Current Knowledge and Understanding

1.3 Illustrative Application to the East Anglian Coast, UK

1.4 Benefits of a Qualitative Deductive Assessment

1.5 Conclusions and Next Steps

References

 

Chapter 6 – Coastal Wetland Habitats: Future Challenges and Potential Solutions        

Summary      

6.1 Introduction       

6.2 The Tyndall Simulator Approach

6.3 Conclusions and Next Steps 

References  

 

Chapter 7 – Simulating the Shore and Cliffs of North Norfolk

Summary

7.1 Introduction       

7.2 Description of the Coast         

7.3 Model Construction     

7.4 Future Climate Change and Coastal Management                       

7.5 Results   

7.6 Conclusions and Next Steps 

References  

 

Chapter 8 – Broad Scale Coastal Inundation Modelling

Summary      

8.1 Intr

oduction       

8.2 Approaches to Coastal Inundation Modelling        

8.3 Application to North Norfolk   

8.4 Conclusions and Next Steps 

Acknowledgements

References

 

Chapter 9 – Broad Scale Flood and Erosion Risk Analysis

 

Chapter 10 – Visualising Potential Coastal Change: Communicating Results Using Visualisation Techniques  

Summary      

10.1 Introduction – Challenges Associated with Communicating and Visualising Coastal Change     

10.2 The Coastal Simulator – Visualisation Approach(Es)     

10.3 Exploring Coastal Futures – Testing the Visualisations in Coastal Decision-Making and Stakeholder Engagement 

10.4 Conclusions and Next Steps           

References  

 

Chapter 11 – The Coastal Simulator Interface: Integration and Application

 

Chapter 12 – Many Stakeholders, Multiple Perspectives: Long-Term Planning for a Future Coast

Summary      

12.1 Introduction     

12.2 The Challenges of a Changeable Coast: North Norfolk, UK     

12.3 Stakeholder Engagement in the Development of the Tyndall Coastal Simulator                  

12.4 Shifting Sands: Lessons Learned for Managing a Changing Coast   

12.5 Conclusions and Next Steps           

References  

 

Chapter 13 – Living with Uncertainty: Difficult Choices for Coastal Management in the UK During the Third Millennium     

Summary  

    

13.1 Introduction     

13.2 Re-Visiting the Response to the 1953 Event        

13.3 How the Simulator Approach Helps Improve Coastal Management    

13.4 The Process of Developing a Coastal Simulator: What Have We Learnt?      

13.5 Key Lessons for UK Coastal Management: Transferring the Simulator for Wider Application        

13.6 Key Lessons for Researchers and Research Funders to Develop UK Coastal Simulator Capacity           

References  

 

Chapter 14 – Generic Lessons for Coastal Management in the Third Millennium

Summary      

14.1 Introduction     

14.2 Key Threats, Opportunities and Priorities for Adaptation and Development in Coastal Areas in the Next 5 Decades       

14.3 Transference of Methods and the Wider Lessons for the International Community

14.4 Coastal Management for the Third Millennium – A Manifesto for Research, Development and Collaboration           

References

O autorze

Robert Nicholls has studied coastal processes and coastal hazards for the last 25 years. In particular, he has an international reputation concerning climate change in coastal areas, especially the potential impacts and the possible responses. His research has involved studies across a range of scales from local (e.g., small towns) to the global. A distinctive dimension has been consideration of the coastal zone as a series of interacting systems which facilitates policy analysis. He has advised national governments (e.g., UK, Netherlands, Singapore, the Maldives) and intergovernmental organisations (e.g., OECD) on climate change and coastal issues, including as a lead author to five reports of the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change assessment process. Currently, he is contributing to a series of research projects, including being Principal Investigator as follows:

1. iCOASST – a NERC-funded consortium project on predicting

decadal coastal morphological evolution

ESPA Deltas – an ESPA (DFID/NERC/ESRC-funded) project which is examining the future of ecosystem services and human well-being in coastal Bangladesh;

DECCMA – a CARRIA (IDRC/DFID-funded) project which is examining adaptation to climate change in the three contrasting deltas of the Volta, Mahanadi and Ganges-Brahmaputra Deltas, with a main focus on migration.

He was awarded the Roger Revelle Medal by the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission in 2008. This recognises ‘outstanding contributions to the ocean sciences by inspired researchers who communicate their knowledge and global vision of the challenges facing our Planet in order to shape a better future for humankind’.

See Web page: http://www.southampton.ac.uk/engineering/about/staff/rjn.page

Blurb

This volume details research underpinning the ‘Coastal Simulator’ developed by the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research. The Simulator provides a framework to analyze long term coastal evolution taking account of all the relevant factors. These include the uncertain future climate and other conditions, such as land use change and allows evaluation of diverse management responses.

Coastal zones exemplify the environmental pressures we face: their beauty attracts settlement, they offer potential for diverse economic activities, and they are sensitive natural habitats for important species, as well as providing a range of ecosystem services. They are also extremely vulnerable to the vicissitudes of climate change, which include rising sea levels and changes in extreme events such as storms. With large populations living in coastal and estuarine cities facing the ongoing threat of inundation, coordinated management is essential, especially as coastal zones form a linked system in which piecemeal, uncoordinated management could be counterproductive.

The Simulator’s current detailed application to the Norfolk coast goes from global climate modelling and broad socio-economic change to the details of evolving coastal habitats, coastal erosion and coastal flood risk and their societal implications. This framework reflects the work of a multi-disciplinary team of key players who analysed these diverse factors in a coherent and integrated manner. The book offers a compelling synthesis of the lessons learned so far at national and international levels, drawing on the expertise of policy makers as well as respected figures in the field.