The Future of EU Agricultural Markets by AGMEMOD

ISBN-13: 9789400722903 / Angielski / Twarda / 2011 / 128 str.

Frédéric Chantreuil;Kevin F. Hanrahan;Myrna van Leeuwen

Opis

This book provides an opportunity to show the strength of AGMEMOD in terms of baseline analysis at detailed regional and market levels supported by an experienced team of country-based modellers. This analysis produced using the AGMEMOD model will be of interest to researchers working in the field of agricultural policy analysis as well as to policy makers from both the European Commission and national ministries of agriculture.§Compared to other partial equilibrium models, the AGMEMOD model is unique in the sense that it combines modelling capacities of researchers with the agricultural sector knowledge of country experts. The country models developed are reviewed by the market experts group with focus on economic and policy plausibility. Information from these regular reviews is implemented by the modellers and enhances their ability to use the AGMEMOD model to provide good policy stories at the country and aggregate EU levels.

Spis treści

PART I

 

Introduction

1. Background

1.1 Origins of EU and CAP

1.1.1 Recent CAP Reforms

1.1.2 Future Evolution of CAP

1.2 Modelling the CAP at Member State Level

1.2.1 Heterogeneity of EU Agriculture

1.2.2 Heterogeneity of EU Agricultural Policy

1.2.3 Heterogeneity of CAP Outcomes

1.3 Model Features

1.4 Economic Models of European Agriculture

1.5 The Baseline Concept

1.6 Conclusion

2. Model Structure and Parameterisation

2.1 PE Model Structure

2.2 AGMEMOD Model Structure

2.2.1 Country and Commodity Coverage

2.2.2 Functional Form

2.2.3 Price Formation and Market Closure

2.3 Estimating and Testing

2.4 Policy Modelling

2.5 Conclusion

3. AGMEMOD Model

3.1 Database

3.1.1 Mnemonics Protocol

3.1.2 Endogenous Variables

3.1.3 Exogenous Variables

3.1.4 Data Generator Tool

3.2 Combination of Country Models

3.2.1 From Conceptual to Computer Model

3.2.2 GAMS Generator  Tool

3.3 AGMEMOD User Interface

3.3.1 Viewing and Revising Data

3.3.2 Viewing and Revising Equations

3.3.3 Viewing and Revising the GAMS Model

3.3.4 Running the Model and Showing the Output

3.4 Validation

3.4.1 Procedure

3.4.2 Helpful Tools

3.5 Conclusion

PART II

4. EU Market Outlook

4.1 Baseline Formulation

4.1.1 Marcoeconomy

4.1.2 World Market Prices

4.1.3 Agricultural (Trade) and Biofuel Policies

4.2 EU Baseline Market Outlook

4.2.1 EU Grains and Oilseeds Baseline

4.2.2 EU Other Crops Baseline

4.2.3 EU Livestock and Meat Baseline

4.2.4 EU Milk and Dairy Products Baseline

4.3 Conclusion

5. The CAP Beyond 2013

5.1 CAP Direct Payment Issue

5.2 Methodological Concept and Scenarios Definition

5.3 Scenario Results

5.3.1 Grains and Oilseeds

5.3.2 Livestock and Meat

5.3.3 Milk and Dairy Products

5.4 Conclusion

 

6. Conclusions and Future Work

 

Index

Blurb

AGMEMOD, or Agricultural Member States Modelling, is an econometrically estimated,

dynamic, multi-product partial equilibrium model useful to analyse the agricultural commodity markets and trade of EU member states as well as of states seeking accession to the Union.

 

This book grasps the opportunity to show the strength of AGMEMOD in terms of baseline analysis at detailed regional and market levels, supported by an experienced team of country-based modellers. This analysis, produced using the AGMEMOD model, will be of interest to researchers working in the field of agricultural policy analysis as well as to policy makers from both the European Commission and its member states’ agriculture ministries.

 

Compared to other partial equilibrium models, the AGMEMOD model is unique in the sense that it combines the modelling capacities of researchers with the agricultural sector knowledge of in-country experts. The country models developed are reviewed by the market experts group with a keen focus on economic and policy plausibility. Information from these regular reviews is re-integrated by the modelers, enhancing their ability to use the AGMEMOD model to provide good policy stories at the country and aggregate EU levels.