The Place of Probability in Science: In Honor of Ellery Eells (1953-2006)

ISBN-13: 9789048136148 / Angielski / Twarda / 2010 / 368 str.

Eells

Opis

The purpose of philosophy, broadly conceived, can be described as that of attempting to resolve heretofore unsolved conceptual and theoretical problems, especially those that lie at the foundations of knowledge and values. Given the central role of science in acquiring reliable knowledge, the study of science has become of special importance within philosophy. And within philosophy of science, in turn, no other concept possesses the centrality and importance as does that of probability. To clarify and illuminate the place of probability in science Ellery Eells and James H. Fetzer have brought together some of the most distinguished philosophers from our time.

After a comprehensive introduction to alternative conceptions of objective probability and the difficulties that they confront, three studies describe the special problems that arise within this context and the comparative merits of different accounts. The second section addresses the nature of lawfulness and of relations between micro- and macro-probabilities, especially with reference to the concept of fitness in evolution. The third section confronts some of the difficulties confronted by causal conceptions of probability, especially within the quantum domain. The fourth extends the discussion to principles of inference and decision. The last chapter relates propensities and frequencies to the framework of inference to the best explanation.

Spis treści

ELLERY EELLS / Objective Probability Theory Theory PART I: ALTERNATIVE CONCEPTIONS OF PROBABILITY 2. DANIEL M. HAUSMAN / Probabilistic Causality and Causal Generalizations 3. MARTIN BARRETT / On the Possibility of Chance Zero 4. JAMES H. FETZER / Probabilistic Metaphysics PART II: THE OBJECTIVITY OF MACRO-PROBABILITIES 5. WOLFGANG SPOHN / Chance and Necessity: From Humean Supervenience to Humean Projection 6. ELLIOTT SOBER / Evolutionary Theory and the Reality of Macro Probabilities 7. JAMES H. FETZER / Is Evolution an Optimizing Process? PART III: PROBABILITIES AS EXPLANATORY PROPERTIES 8. ELLERY EELLS / Propensity Trajectories, Preemption, and the Identity of Events 9. MALCOLM FORSTER / The Miraculous Consilience of Quantum Mechanics 10. JAMES H. FETZER / Probability and Objectivity in Deterministic and deterministic Situations PART IV: PROBABILITIES IN INFERENCE AND DECISION 11...BRANDEN FITELSON and JAMES HAWTHORNE / How Bayesian Confirmation Theory Handles the Paradox of the Ravens 12. BRIAN SKYRMS and ROBIN PEMANTLE / Learning to Network: Game Theory and Reinforcement Learning 13. PAUL WEIRICH / Probabilities in Decision Rules EPILOGUE 14. JAMES H. FETZER / Propensities and Frequencies: Inference to the Best Explanation