Future Studies and Counterfactual Analysis: Seeds of the Future

ISBN-13: 9783030184391 / Angielski / Miękka / 2020 / 194 str.

Theodore J. Gordon; Mariana Todorova

Spis treści

Chapter 1: Introduction.

Chapter 2: True or False: The Problem Here is Identifying What is True and What is Not.

Scenario 1: Market Madness

Scenario 2: Bureaucratic Truth

Scenario 3: The Courts of Supreme Wisdom

Scenario 4: Enemy of the People

Chapter 3: Proliferation: Doomsday or Politics? The Problem Here is Controlling Spread of Weapons of Mass Destruction.

Scenario 1: A Mouse on the Road to Hell

Scenario 2: The Decision Maker

Scenario 3: In the Fruit Garden of Pakistan

Scenario 4: The Story Behind Trump-Putin Day

Scenario 5: Putting the Genie Back in the Bottle

Chapter 4: The Bounds of Humanity: Will Malthus Ultimately Be Proven Correct? The Problem Here is that We Don't Know How to Limit Population Growth or if New Policies are Really Necessary. Can We Leave it to Chance?.

Scenario 1: The China Syndrome

Scenario 2: Super Saltpeter

Scenario 3: Birth Certificates

Scenario 4: Design Discord

Chapter 5: The Beginning and Hereafter: Why do We Exist?.

Scenario 1: Faust

Scenario 2: A Creation Myth: Empiricism

Scenario 3: It is all About Connections

Chapter 6: Immortality: Where Does the Need to be Remember.

Scenario 1: Legacy

Scenario 2: Aunt Sadie

Scenario 3: Rot in Peace

Scenario 4: Living Healthy Forever

Chapter 7: Religion: The Problem Here is that in Religion, as well as Other Institutions, We See Corruption, Immorality, Ethical Lapses, and Abuses. In its Entwinement with Government: Who Makes and Enforces Laws, Sets Education Standards, and Provides Security: the People, the King, or God?.

Scenario 1: Moot Point

Scenario 2: End of the Rainbow

Scenario 3: Godspeak: Religion Tech

Chapter 8: Decision Making: The Talent for Decisions. The Problem Here is that Most Decisions Turn out Badly.

Scenario 1: First in My Decision Class

Scenario 2: Inferences

Scenario 3: Where is Morality

Chapter 9: Dealing with Bio-terrorism: The Problem Here is that Terrorism can Adopt Biological Weapons as an Attack Mode: Harder to Detect, More Dangerous in its Outcome.

Scenario 1: The Path to SIMAD

Scenario 2: The First Motive

Scenario 3: Reset

Scenario 4: Trade Off

Chapter 10: Our Computer Overlords: The Problems Here are the Contest Between Work and Leisure, How Much of Each, Who has Either and the Chances for AI Becoming our Masters.

Scenario 1: Plug Me in Poppy

Scenario 2: I am a Machine

Scenario 3: Super Sari and Her Sisters

Chapter 11: What Constitutes Progress? The Problem Here is Defining What Constitutes Progress and MEans for Attaining it Since Science, Technology, Politics, and Markets do not Necessarily Follow Paths tha tLead to Solutions of Pressing Problems or Attainment of Goals.

Scenario 1: Shangri-La: Gross National Happiness

Scenario 2: Chasing Highs

Scenario 3: The Best of All Possible Worlds

Scenario 4: Stasis is Good

Chapter 12: Political Chaos: The Problem Here is What Politics Has Become. Civility is Almost Gone, Debate is Almost Non-existent, yet the Sides are Firm in Their Positions and Sure They are Right.

Scenario 1: Electing?

Scenario 2: Common Enemy

Scenario 3: Strong Woman

Chapter 13: The Perfect Human: Unlocking the Mysteries of Human Genetics and Developing the Technologies to Manipulate Heredity Will Give, for Better or Worse, a New Dimension to Our Ability to Set the Fate of Our Children.

Scenario 1: Untitled

Scenario 2: Can We Imagine

Chapter 14: Conclusions.

Appendix A Methodologies.

Appendix B Authors' Biographies.

Index.

O autorze

Mr. Theodore J. Gordon, co-founder of the Millennium Project, the Institute for the Future, and the Futures Group, Inc., is a well- known futurist and senior author of this book. He has authored many books and professional papers, and in past years was Chief Engineer for the Apollo 3rd Stage lunar rocket.

Dr. Mariana Todorova, PhD is a researcher at Bulgarian Academy of Sciences and has been a Member of the Bulgarian Parliament. Todorova is a Chair of Millennium project Bulgarian node. She is building a new methodology of forecasting based on counterfactual analysis. She is an analyst, futurist, strategist, and trend tracker.

Blurb

In this volume, the authors contribute to futures research by placing the counterfactual question in the future tense. They explore the possible outcomes of future, and consider how future decisions are turning points that may produce different global outcomes. This book focuses on a dozen or so intractable issues that span politics, religion, and technology, each addressed in individual chapters. Until now, most scenarios written by futurists have been built on cause and effect narratives or depended on numerical models derived from historical relationships. In contrast, many of the scenarios written for this book are point descriptions of future discontinuities, a form allows more thought-provoking presentations. Ultimately, this book demonstrates that counterfactual thinking and point scenarios of discontinuities are new, groundbreaking tools for futurists.