Probably Not: Future Prediction Using Probability and Statistical Inference

ISBN-13: 9781119518105 / Angielski / Miękka / 2019 / 352 str.

Lawrence N. Dworsky

Spis treści

AcknowledgmentsAbout The Companion SiteIntroduction1 An Introduction to ProbabilityPredicting The FutureRule MakingRandom Events and ProbabilityThe LotteryCoin FlippingThe Coin Flip Strategy That Can't LoseThe Prize Behind The DoorThe Checker BoardCommentsProblems2 Probability Distribution Functions and Some Math BasicsThe Probability Distribution FunctionAverages and Weighted AveragesExpected ValuesThe Basic Coin Flip GamePDF SymmetryStandard DeviationCumulative Distribution FunctionThe Confidence IntervalFinal PointsRehash and HistogramsProblems3 Building A BellProblems4 Random WalksThe One-Dimensional Random WalkSome Subsequent CalculationsDiffusionProblems5 Life InsuranceIntroductionLife InsuranceInsurance As GamblingLife TablesBirth Rates and Population StabilityLife Tables, AgainPremiumsSocial Security - Sooner Or Later?Problems6 The Binomial TheoremIntroductionThe Binomial Probability FormulaPermutations and CombinationsLarge Number ApproximationsThe Poisson DistributionDisease ClustersClustersProblems7 Pseudorandom Numbers and Monte -Carlo SimulationsRandom Numbers and SimulationsPseudo-Random NumbersThe Middle Square PRNGThe Linear Congruential PRNGA Normal Distribution GeneratorAn Arbitrary Distribution GeneratorMonte Carlo SimulationsA League of Our OwnDiscussionNotes8 Some Gambling Games In DetailThe Basic Coin Flip GameThe "Ultimate Winning Strategy"Parimutuel BettingThe Gantt Chart and A Hint of Another ApproachProblems9 Scheduling and WaitingIntroductionScheduling Appointments In The Doctor's OfficeLunch with A FriendWaiting for A BusProblems10 Combined and Conditional ProbabilitiesIntroductionFunctional Notation (Again)Conditional ProbabilityMedical Test ResultsThe Shared Birthday ProblemProblems11 Bayesian StatisticsBayes TheoremMultiple PossibilitiesWill Monty Hall Ever Go Away?PhilosophyThe Prosecutor's FallacyContinuous FunctionsCredible IntervalsGantt Charts (Again)Problems12 Estimation ProblemsThe Number of Locomotives ProblemNumber of Locomotives, Improved EstimateDecision MakingThe Light House ProblemThe Likelihood FunctionThe Light House Problem II13 Two ParadoxesIntroductionParrondo's ParadoxAnother Parrondo GameThe Parrondo RatchetSimpson's ParadoxProblems14 Benford's LawIntroductionHistoryThe 1/x DistributionGoodness of Fit MeasureSmith's AnalysisProblems15 Networks, Infectious Diseases and Chain LettersIntroductionDegrees of SeparationPropagation Along The NetworksSome Other NetworksNeighborhood ChainsChain LettersComments16 Introduction To Frequentist Statistical InferenceIntroductionSamplingSample Distributions and Standard DeviationsEstimating Population Average From A SampleThe Student-T DistributionPolling StatisticsDid A Sample Come From A Given Distribution?A Little ReconciliationCorrelation and CausalityCorrelation CoefficientRegression LinesRegression To The MeanProblems17 Statistical Mechanics and ThermodynamicsIntroductionStatistical Mechanics(Concepts of) Thermodynamics18 Chaos and QuantaIntroductionChaosProbability In Quantum MechanicAppendixIntroductionContinuous Distributions and IntegralsExponential FunctionsIndex

O autorze

LAWRENCE N. DWORSKY, PHD, is a retired Vice President of the Technical Staff and Director of Motorola's Components Research Laboratory in Schaumburg, Illinois, USA. He is the author of Introduction to Numerical Electrostatics Using MATLAB(r) from Wiley.