The Recession Prevention Handbook: Eleven Case Studies, 1948-2007: Eleven Case Studies, 1948-2007

ISBN-13: 9780765622839 / Angielski / Twarda / 2010 / 408 str.

Norman Frumkin

Opis

The United States has endured eleven recessions since the end of World War II, including the recession of 2007-2009. This book focuses on the performance of the economy and the actions taken during the expansion period before the onset of each recession. It's goal is to help prevent or at least lessen the severity of possible future recessions. Well-known economics writer Arthur Frumkin analyzes each of the eleven contemporary recessions to determine: What weaknesses appeared in the economy during the twelve months preceding the onset of the recession? What were economic forecasters predicting? What economics policy actions were taken by the Federal Reserve, the president, and Congress? Incorporating extensive real-time data, Frumkin points to persistent failures over the past sixty years by the Federal Reserve and the president to forecast or to acknowledge the possibility of future recessions. Based on these findings, he concludes with a range of policy recommendations for avoiding or ameliorating future recessions.

Spis treści

Preface and Acknowledgments; 1. Characteristics of Recessions; Business Cycles and Recessions; A Proposed New Definition of Economic Downturns; Frequency of Recessions since the Early 1980s; Severity of Recessions; Jobless Recoveries from Recent Recessions; Failure to Forecast Recessions and its Policy Implications; 2. The Recession of 1948-49; Backlog of Household Durable Goods, Housing, and Business Capital Needs at the End of 1947; Inflation at the End of 1947; Overview of the Economy During 1948; Economic Indicators in Real Time During 1948; Note on National Defense; Assessment of Economic Policies Preceding the 1948-49 Recession; Appendix 2.1. The Economy before 1948. 3. The Recession of 1953-54; Korean War and the Economy; Federal Reserve Policy Change; Economic Indicators in Real Time During 1952-53; Note on National Defense; 54 Recession; Federal Government Fiscal Position; 4. The Recession of 1957-58; Economic Indicators in Real Time During 1956-57; Assessment of Economic Policies Preceding the 1957-58 Recession; 5. The Recession of 1960-61; Economic Indicators in Real Time During 1959-60; Assessment of Economic Policies Preceding the 1960-61 Recession; 6. The Recession of 1969-70; Fiscal Policy and the Vietnam War; Definition of Full Employment; Economic Indicators in Real Time During 1968-69; Assessment of Economic Policies Preceding the 1969-70 Recession; 7. The Recession of 1973-75; Economic Policy Changes of August 15, 1971; Economic Indicators in Real Time During 1972-73; Assessment of Economic Policies Preceding the 1973-75 Recession; 8. The Recession of 1980; Productivity Slowdown; Iranian Revolution; Decline in the Foreign Exchange Value of the Dollar; Economic Indicators in Real Time During 1978-79; Assessment of Economic Policies Preceding the 1980 Recession; 9. The Recession of 1981-82; Effect of the 1980 Recession on Subsequent Inflation; Economic Recovery Tax Act of 1981 and the 1981-82 Recession; Economic Indicators in Real Time During 1980-81; Assessment of Economic Policies Preceding the 1981-82 Recession; 10. The Recession of 1990-91; International Events; Value of the Dollar; Federal Government Regulations; Natural Disasters; Savings and Loan Associations Failures; Stock Market Crash of 1987; Fiscal Policy; Economic Indicators in Real Time During 1989-90; Assessment of Economic Policies Preceding the 1990-91 Recession; 11. The Recession of 2001; Economic Record; Fiscal Policy; Monetary Policy; Stock Market and Telecommunications Companies Bubbles; Economic Indicators in Real Time During 1999-2000; Assessment of Economic Policies Preceding the 2001 Recession; 12. The Recession of 2007-09; Economic Record; Fiscal Policy and War; Household Income, Spending, and Saving, Grouped by Household Income; House Price Bubble; Hurricane Katrina; Economic Indicators in Real Time During 2006-07; Assessment of Economic Policies Preceding the 2007-09 Recession; 13. Findings and Recommendations; Precipitating Elements of Each Recession; Themes and Agents of the Precipitating Elements; Federal Reserve; Policy Recommendations for Avoiding or Ameliorating Future Recessions; Conclusion; References; Index; About the Author.

O autorze

Norman Frumkin