Modeling Demographic Processes in Marked Populations

ISBN-13: 9780387781501 / Angielski / Twarda / 2008 / 1132 str.

David L. Thomson; Evan G. Cooch; Michael J. Conroy

Opis

This text brings together biologists and statisticians in an interdisciplinary synthesis to develop new methods to overcome the most significant challenges and constraints faced by quantitative biologists seeking to model demographic rates.

Spis treści

Population Dynamics – Growth, Density-Dependence and Decomposing ?.- Bayesian Hierarchical Models for Inference About Population Growth.- Assessing Density-Dependence: Where Are We Left?.- The Efficient Semiparametric Regression Modeling of Capture-Recapture Data: Assessing the Impact of Climate on Survival of Two Antarctic Seabird Species.- Multivariate State Space Modelling of Bird Migration Count Data.- Evolutionary Ecology.- Contribution of Capture-Mark-Recapture Modeling to Studies of Evolution by Natural Selection.- Application of Capture–Recapture to Addressing Questions in Evolutionary Ecology.- Estimating Reproductive Costs with Multi-State Mark-Recapture Models, Multiple Observable States, and Temporary Emigration.- Estimating Latent Time of Maturation and Survival Costs of Reproduction in Continuous Time from Capture–Recapture Data.- Abundance Estimation – Direct Methods, Proxies, Occupancy Models and Point Count Data.- Inferences About Landbird Abundance from Count Data: Recent Advances and Future Directions.- Sources of Measurement Error, Misclassification Error, and Bias in Auditory Avian Point Count Data.- Density Estimation by Spatially Explicit Capture–Recapture: Likelihood-Based Methods.- A Generalized Mixed Effects Model of Abundance for Mark-Resight Data When Sampling is Without Replacement.- Evaluation of the Linkage Disequilibrium Method for Estimating Effective Population Size.- Dispersal, Movement and Migration – Methods and Multi-State Models.- Migration and Movement – The Next Stage.- Stopover Duration Analysis with Departure Probability Dependent on Unknown Time Since Arrival.- Habitat Selection, Age-Specific Recruitment and Reproductive Success in a Long-Lived Seabird.- Cubic Splines for Estimating the Distribution of Residence Time Using Individual Resightings Data.- Detecting Invisible Migrants: An Application of Genetic Methods to Estimate Migration Rates.- Wildlife and Conservation Management.- Stochastic Variation in Avian Survival Rates: Life-History Predictions, Population Consequences, and the Potential Responses to Human Perturbations and Climate Change.- Filling a Void: Abundance Estimation of North American Populations of Arctic Geese Using Hunter Recoveries.- Integration of Demographic Analyses and Decision Modeling in Support of Management of Invasive Monk Parakeets, an Urban and Agricultural Pest.- Combing Sources of Information – Kalman Filters, Matrix Methods and Joint Likelihoods.- Completing the Ecological Jigsaw.- Using a State-Space Model of the British Song Thrush Turdus philomelos Population to Diagnose the Causes of a Population Decline.- A Hierarchical Covariate Model for Detection, Availability and Abundance of Florida Manatees at a Warm Water Aggregation Site.- An Integrated Analysis of Multisite Recruitment, Mark-Recapture-Recovery and Multisite Census Data.- Bayesian Applications - Advances, Random Effects and Hierarchical Models.- Bayes Factors and Multimodel Inference.- Estimating Demographic Parameters from Complex Data Sets: A Comparison of Bayesian Hierarchical and Maximum-Likelihood Methods for Estimating Survival Probabilities of Tawny Owls, Strix aluco in Finland.- Inference About Species Richness and Community Structure Using Species-Specific Occupancy Models in the National Swiss Breeding Bird Survey MHB.- Time-Varying Covariates and Semi-Parametric Regression in Capture–Recapture: An Adaptive Spline Approach.- A Further Step Toward the Mother-of-All-Models: Flexibility and Functionality in the Modeling of Capture–Recapture Data.- The Robust Design – Sampling, Applications and Advances.- Exploring Extensions to Multi-State Models with Multiple Unobservable States.- Extending the Robust Design for DNA-Based Capture–Recapture Data Incorporating Genotyping Error and Laboratory Data.- A Traditional and a Less-Invasive Robust Design: Choices in Optimizing Effort Allocation for Seabird Population Studies.- Non-random Temporary Emigration and the Robust Design: Conditions for Bias at the End of a Time Series.- State Uncertainty – Assignmant Error and Unobservable States.- One Size Does Not Fit All: Adapting Mark-Recapture and Occupancy Models for State Uncertainty.- The Stakes of Capture–Recapture Models with State Uncertainty.- Rank and Redundancy of Multistate Mark-Recapture Models for Seabird Populations with Unobservable States.- Mark-Recapture Jolly-Seber Abundance Estimation with Classification Uncertainty.- Program E-Surge: A Software Application for Fitting Multievent Models.- Estimation of Lifetime Reproductive Success When Reproductive Status Cannot Always Be Assessed.- New Software Developments for Modeling Demographic Processes.- WinBUGS for Population Ecologists: Bayesian Modeling Using Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods.- Comparison of Fixed Effect, Random Effect, and Hierarchical Bayes Estimators for Mark Recapture Data Using AD Model Builder.- Open Forum.- On Adjusting for Missed Visits in the Indexing of Abundance from “Constant Effort” Ringing.- Simulation Performance of Bayesian Estimators of Abundance Employing Age-at-Harvest and Mark-Recovery Data.- A Spatial Model for Estimating Mortality Rates, Abundance and Movement Probabilities from Fishery Tag-Recovery Data.- Gaussian Semiparametric Analysis Using Hierarchical Predictive Models.- Effect of Senescence on Estimation of Survival Probability When Age Is Unknown.- Weak Identifiability in Models for Mark-Recapture-Recovery Data.- Estimating N: A Robust Approach to Capture Heterogeneity.- Evaluation of Bias, Precision and Accuracy of Mortality Cause Proportion Estimators from Ring Recovery Data.- Standardising Terminology and Notation for the Analysis of Demographic Processes in Marked Populations.- Estimating the Seasonal Distribution of Migrant Bird Species: Can Standard Ringing Data Be Used?.- Evaluation of a Bayesian MCMC Random Effects Inference Methodology for Capture-Mark-Recapture Data.- On Adjusting for Missed Visits in the Indexing of Abundance from “Constant Effort” Ringing.- Simulation Performance of Bayesian Estimators of Abundance Employing Age-at-Harvest and Mark-Recovery Data.

Blurb

Much of biology can be understood in terms of demography. It is the demographic processes of birth and death which govern rates of population growth and the rates at which gene frequencies change. The analysis of demographic processes in free-living organisms is, however, far from simple. Scientists from diverse fields in biology and statistics have united to address the challenges by developing mark-recapture methods and other approaches. Progress has been rapid, and this volume represents a snapshot of the emerging field. It has eleven sections in total, covering the most important biological and statistical frontiers, new software developments, and an open forum. It covers the latest approaches in modeling population dynamics, evolutionary ecology and wildlife biology. It addresses issues in the estimation of abundance and movement, and it covers new statistical approaches in the combination of information, Bayesian statistics, Robust Designs and the modeling of state-uncertainty.