Managerial Decisions Under Uncertainty: An Introduction to the Analysis of Decision Making

ISBN-13: 9780471858911 / Angielski / Twarda / 1991 / 544 str.

Bruce F. Baird;Baird

Opis

This book shows the reader how to improve decision-making skills in realistic situations and how to do it in a reasonably non-mathematical fashion. The author develops practical techniques for deciding upon the best strategies in a variety of situations. He provides methods for reducing complex problems to easily-drawn decision diagrams (trees), and supports them with real-life examples. Detailed cases that employ the methods described in the text are included, and each chapter contains illustrated examples and exercises. The text will be of interest to managers and students of engineering and business administration.

Spis treści

Some Fundamental Concepts.

Elementary Probability Theory.

Random Variables and Probability Distributions.

Theoretical Probability Distributions.

Decision Theory and Inference.

Some Elementary Bayesian Concepts.

Construction of Decision Diagrams.

Information and Revision of Probabilities.

Probability Assessment.

The Theory and Application of Utility.

Sensitivity Analysis.

Decision Making and the Normal Distribution.

Multicriteria Decisions.

Cases.

Appendices.

Answers to Selected Exercises.

Bibliography.

Index.